Submitted by Craig on Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:58
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday April 22nd)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period
This week and weekend (Apr 22 - 25)
Yesterday's first proper large swell of the season should be easing slowly across Eastern Indonesia today under light to moderate trades.
The swell is expected to drop more noticeably through tomorrow and Thursday with Thursday evening being a low point in swell activity. In saying this, exposed spots aren't likely to drop below 3-4ft.
Into the weekend a moderate increase in groundswell is due, arriving through Friday, peaking Saturday and easing slowly Sunday.
This is related to a flurry of strong but unconsolidated frontal activity through the Southern Ocean to the south west of WA. Size wise, we should see exposed locations building to 4-5ft+ later Friday before peaking in the 4-6ft range Saturday. A slow drop is then due Sunday from 4-5ft or so.
Winds will continue to be favourable with a variable airstream each morning ahead of light to moderate E/SE trades through the afternoons.
Next week onwards (Apr 26 onwards)
Our next pulse of large swell is due to arrive Tuesday afternoon and peak Wednesday next week, generated by a vigorous and long-lived polar low firing up south-east of South Africa Wednesday evening before tracking east towards Australia Thursday and Friday and then breaking down just of WA's South West coast.
Fetch strength will reach the gale to severe-gale range with a period of storm-force winds through Friday (pictured right), setting in motion a large, long-period and inconsistent S/SW groundswell.
Size wise, exposed spots should reach at least 8ft Tuesday evening ahead of a peak Wednesday to 8ft to occasionally 10ft.
We may see a secondary large reinforcing pulse for Thursday, but we'll have to confirm this again on Thursday. Winds look to swing a little less favourable and light from the SW through next week, but variable and local land breezes are more than likely each morning.
East Java Forecast