Submitted by Craig on Mon, 04/21/2014 - 11:16
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st April)
Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday west of Melbourne, Friday east of Melbourne, early Saturday west of Melbourne, Sunday east of Melbourne
The start of a strong new W/SW groundswell was seen Saturday morning with fun 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast with an early W'ly breeze, but conditions deteriorated as the swell kicked to 6ft during the day with a moderate onshore wind. Still the protected reefs were offering workable conditions for experienced surfers. The Mornington Peninsula was too big and messy, while Western Port offered good waves all day.
Sunday was a classic autumn day across the Surf Coast with a clean 3-5ft of swell under perfect offshore NW tending variable winds, while the Mornington Peninsula was cleaner but too large for the beaches with an easing 6-8ft of swell.
Today wave heights have steadied in the 3-4ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft along the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW winds opening up plenty of options across the Victorian coast. A slightly stronger long-range W/SW groundswell is due into this afternoon, with sets to 5ft likely at Bells as winds strengthen from the N'th.
This week (Apr 21 - 25)
This afternoon's increase in long-range W/SW groundswell will peak overnight and ease slowly through tomorrow from 3-4ft at exposed spots on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula. Fresh NW winds will favour locations west of Melbourne ahead of a late shift to the W/SW.
For the rest of the week we'll see moderate levels of W/SW groundswell ebbing and pulsing across the state as front after front pushes through the Southern Ocean. One of these is due Wednesday, keeping 3ft surf hitting the Surf Coast, with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, while a slightly stronger pulse is due later Thursday ahead of a drop Friday. Winds will unfortunately swing strong onshore from the S/SW early Thursday with the front generating the swell, while Friday looks better as winds swing back around to the N/NE, favouring the Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast beachies with a late swing to the N/NW possible around Torquay.
This weekend onwards (Apr 26 onwards)
One final pulse of decent sized SW groundswell is due over the weekend and after this we'll enter a short period of subdued swell activity.
The weekend's swell should arrive later Saturday afternoon and peak Sunday to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be best across locations east of Melbourne Sunday with winds from the eastern quadrant.
Longer term we may see some better swell later in the week/following weekend, but we'll review this Wednesday.