Submitted by Craig on Wed, 04/16/2014 - 15:32
South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 16th April)
Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning, Saturday, Sunday, Monday
Some fun peaky waves were seen down South yesterday with a good swell to 3ft at Middleton with larger 4ft sets out at Waits under light NE winds. Sea breezes weren't too strong into the afternoon creating fun waves after lunch. The Mid Coast saw tiny 1-1.5ft waves during the morning but these faded back to 1ft during the day as winds freshened from the S'th.
Today the swell is a touch smaller but cleaner down South with offshore winds, while the Mid Coast was back to a tiny 0.5-1ft with generally light winds.
This week and weekend (Apr 16 - 21)
Tomorrow should offer fun clean waves across the South Coast during the morning with a small-moderate swell and offshore NW breeze. Winds should hold from the W/NW into the afternoon with an approaching front, keeping Middleton and other protected locations clean.
A late increase in good W/SW groundswell is due across the Mid Coast to 1-2ft, and moderate W/NW winds shouldn't do too much damage.
Thursday's late increase in swell will hold well into Friday morning, but the Mid will be a write off with a freshening pre-frontal W'ly breeze ahead of a strong SW change. The South Coast will be the pick before lunch with a clean 2-3ft of swell at Middleton and bigger 3-4ft sets out at Waits.
Of much greater importance is the large and powerful SW groundswell due Saturday across the state, and there's been no real change to the expected size or makeup of this swell.
The swell is being generated by a large and broad polar front firing that formed west of Heard Island at the start of the week that's since been steered by the Long Wave Trough up towards WA.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds are being generated through our swell window and will continue into this evening before the frontal system breaks down in the Bight tomorrow.
A late kick in size is a possibility Friday across the South Coast, but with strong onshore winds it won't be worth hanging out for.
Saturday morning will be very large and powerful with 5-6ft surf expected across Middleton-Day St, while Goolwa, Waits and Parsons should see bigger 6-8ft sets. The Mid Coast should offer plenty of waves in the 2-3ft+ range and with variable winds in the wake of Friday's change, conditions should be fun and glassy. The South Coast will likely see a lingering SW'ly, but it will only be light, opening up plenty of options for experienced surfers.
A drop in size is due Sunday as variable winds persist across the Mid, but the South Coast should see a morning W/NW'ly creating clean conditions around Victor Harbor and Middleton.
Monday will be one of the better days to head down South though as winds freshen from the N'th and a reinforcing medium sized SW groundswell fills in. The source of this swell will be a much smaller but still intense polar low moving in in the wake of the system responsible for Saturday's swell. This should keep Middleton kicking in the 3-5ft range with 4-6ft sets at Waits during the morning (1-2ft on the Mid) ahead of a drop into the afternoon.
Next Tuesday onwards (Apr 22 onwards)
Wave heights will continue to drop through Tuesday but winds will go poor and fresh from the S/SE as a surface trough moves in from the west. Conditions will quickly improve into Wednesday and Thursday though and there's a couple more medium sized S/SW groundswell pulses on the cards, but we'll review this Friday.