Submitted by Craig on Mon, 04/14/2014 - 17:25
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th April)
Best Days: Wednesday morning, Thursday onwards
Friday's late kick in stormy SE windswell came in larger on Saturday but conditions remained poor with S/SE winds.
Sunday provided much better conditions with a good pulse of E'ly groundswell to 3-5ft across open beaches under lighter and more variable S'ly winds.
Today the swell was coming in at a similar size with better offshores creating excellent conditions. A slight drop in size should have been seen this afternoon as the fetch of winds around the Tasman Low took a more north-south orientation, cutting the fetch wrapping around its bottom flank in half.
This week and weekend (Apr 14 - 20)
Tomorrow morning will signal a temporary low point in swell activity before we see a mix of E'ly and E/SE groundswell arriving into the afternoon.
This renewed E'ly groundswell has been generated by a fetch of E/NE gales feeding into the backside of the Tasman Low, just off the South Island of NZ's West Coast. Also some radial spread from a fetch of SE gales on the Tasman Low's western flank is due to fill in with both swells combining to build tomorrow afternoon and reach 3-5ft across open beaches later in the day (smaller 3ft+ surf is expected during the morning). Wednesday should yield a similar size ahead of a slow drop into the afternoon.
Winds are looking average tomorrow though with a moderate to fresh S'ly tending S/SE breeze tomorrow, while Wednesday morning should see a light W'ly ahead of NE sea breezes.
The rest of the week will remain active as the Tasman Low slowly retreats towards New Zealand all the while maintaining a fetch of SE gales through our swell window that are then expected to reach the severe-gale range off the South Island's tip through Thursday.
This should keep medium levels of E/SE swell hitting open beaches through Thursday ahead of a stronger pulse Friday to 3-4ft+ during the morning. This won't be the final pulse though, as ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita is forecast to be absorbed into the Tasman Low on Thursday resulting in a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force E/SE winds being generated out of New Zealand's Cook Strait (the water passage between the North and South Island's, illustrated right).
Another strong pulse of E/NE groundswell is due off this source, arriving through Saturday and peaking in the 4-5ft range during the day. A pronounced drop in swell is due Sunday though, so make the most of Saturday. Winds in general for the end of the week and Saturday look great, swinging offshore and remaining so each afternoon.
Therefore the coming period of waves is looking exceptional for East Coast Tassie surfers, so make the most of it.
Longer term (Apr 21 onwards)
There's nothing too significant on the cards for next week besides a couple of small pulses of S'ly groundswell. We'll look at this again in more detail on Wednesday though.
Craig... Just got home...... Waste of time thanks to winds.... But ese swell is getting into a couple of east facing nooks, even in the deep south...... Only small, but there.... Cold, windy, over it..... Tassie is a young man's game..... Very close to considering moving back to the mainland...... ggrrrr.........
Bad luck SD, plenty more days to come with much better winds.
Where on the mainland would you go Sheepdog ? I would have thought Tassie would have been a bit harsh with your skin situation anyway. Lots of overcast days but when the sun shines it's got some punch if not heat. My lady got sun stroke down there.
Not wrong about the sun down here, blowin..... My dermatologist in hobart reckons he does at least 3 melanomas a week, which just blew me away..... I don't surf the east coast much down here....Tassie sun + morning glare off the ocean.... It was that combo up in Qld that fucked me up I reckon... I stick to morning surfs on south - south west facing beaches + wear a hood....
Can't go back to the sunny coast.... Just too expensive.... Wouldn't get enough for our property down here.... My wife really misses her home state of S.A..... I lived there for a while..... Quite a good place..... Dunno, Blowin..... really really dunno..... Robe?...... maybe Vicco - Portland.... Port Fairy..... Mallacoota..... Just dunno......
That Southern Australian sun is ridiculous , I reckon it's way worse than northern Oz, heaps worse than the equator. Not for heat but for pure burn factor. SSW WA is the extreme I think, half hour around the great southern with no shirt and your par boiled.
Maybe you should move to Northern California and live under the marine layer. Embrace your inner seppo.
Pretty limited in Oz if you can't expose yourself to old Matahari. Maybe South Coast NSW for balance of good waves that's not too oppressively cold ( subjective - not exactly my idea of heaven ) without too much debilitating UV rays.
Must be hard mate , if your anything like me. I feel like birdman , the sun invigorates me that much. But who's too say I'm not down your road already mate. Fair percentage of us Sons of Beaches got some hard truths ahead of us I'd say. So when you find this happy medium you'd better save a spot for me eh?
Blowin, cheers man... I'll post some photos that will freak you out..... Hope you aint squeamish... I'll start a new thread.....
Sounds good....I think.
Blowin.. Get a vomit bag.... here - http://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/112926