South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th April)
Why is this dingleberry doing the Ballina report talking about S facing beaches and posting up shots of two foot close-outs at Belongil?
S facing beaches are an unsurfable mess and the rest of the SE facing coastline at Ballina isn't much better.
If you are going to do a Byron report why not name it as such?
Well.... Just looked at some cams.... Wave buoys..... Massive tide this morning..... Buoys all indicate east swell... Not one buoy, all of them..... On open beach cams there is no whitewater sweeping northwards in the shallows - stagnant with rips.... slight movement south if anything.......... Looks 4 foot to me..... Even on a 1.8m tide first point noosa has the odd slider, and a definite swell (masked by the tide) is breaking onto the beach....... Outer points will have waves as tide drops rapidly.......
C'mon SD, the swell has plenty of south in it. Been watching the D'Bah cam all morning and it's very evident with sets in the 4ft range, sometimes a little bigger. Burleigh is very small by comparison and Snapper is only just breaking. And our surfcam at The Pass shows tiny, barely rideable conditions - if there was any east in the swell, it'd be showing plenty of waves upwards of 2ft+.
freeride76 wrote:If you are going to do a Byron report why not name it as such?
We have been attempting to rename this Byron for some time but this requires database changes to be made, that are taking much longer than expected (due to client feeds of the existing 'Ballina' surf report, which are hardcoded).
In any case, the 'Ballina' surf report is not exclusively for Ballina per se - all Swellnet surf reports are 'regional - that is, they're meant to cover a wide range of coastline. The Ballina report covers locations from Brunswick Heads to Evans Head (Yamba report covers Evans Head to Wooli, the Coffs report covers Wooli to South West Rocks, and so forth).
OK, if the guy is going to do a regional report maybe give him a quick course in the coastline orientation between Bruns to Evans.
He's clearly struggling with it.
"Cmon, Ben"... ;)At the very start of our conversation, the predominant theme was noosa, so don't move the goalposts..... I have at the whole time been talking about the sunshine coast, bar one comment where I specified two separate swells in the mix for the goldy, ese AND sse......
http://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/110691
OK, let's keep the topic on Noosa then. I've been watching the surfcam and it appears to be tiny. Hardly anyone out either. This says it's very, very small - most likely a result of the swell having plenty of south in its direction.
And some riding...
So you are telling the surfing world that a 3 foot sse swell will wrap all the way around Cape moreton, then continue to wrap around granite, tea tree, and break at national park on a 1.8m high tide?????
Is that what you are saying??????? As I said yesterday, "4footish', outer point noosa (Granite), taper to 2 foot first point..... bad sweep, worse than usual.... very high tide may hide swell early.
SSE has never EVER made noosa break.... EVER..... Oh, unles it is 10 foot.... Swell out of east....
North Moreton - east (was ene overnight)
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastal/monitoring/waves/site_param.php?siteid...
Caloundra - east....(was ene overnight)
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastal/monitoring/waves/site_param.php?siteid...
Mooloolabah - east, with a pinch of south....
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastal/monitoring/waves/site_param.php?siteid...
SD, I never went into specifics. I merely stated that TC Ita wouldn't generate a meaningful swell for SE Qld, and that - in particular - any surf we see from this system would be generated by the fetch developing between TC Ita and the high pressure ridge, rather than the eastern flank (ie NE or E swells).
The reason I was particular about this was because the surfing world (in my opinion) gets way too excited about cyclone swells. And with a Cat 1 cyclone sitting immediately off the coast during Monday, I thought it was prudent to majorly downplay the prospects of any notable swell from it.
SD, refer my discussion yesterday. You have to take the EPA wave buoy directions for SE Qld with a grain of salt....all bar one....Point Lookout. It hasn't budged from true S/SE the last few days.
There's no question today is way smaller at Noosa than yesterday. Yesterday was twice the size at 1st Point.
On topic of regional reports, i saw 2-3ft on the GC report yesterday, checked cams and flagged it and went for a run instead. Covered the coastline from Palmy to Miami and didn't see a single wave over 1ft, and nobody in the water at all. Is the GC dude standing at Pt Danger when he reports?
I find the reports are usually pretty accurate, but when a swell has south in it, best to go have a look myself. Can't expect a report on every beach I guess, but good to keep in mind when reporting on a broad strip of geography
Yeah Fair enough.... All I said was a 4 foot chunky with east in it........ Didn't overamp the situation..... Didn't say "all time", just a 4 foot chunky, which it is... Granite will be fun after lunch...... Surfing is very subjective, ben..... The four foot chunk yesterday afternoon, and even the high tide little sliders right now on the inner points would've been celebrated back in early december, when the sunshine coast was going through weeks upon weeks of flatness..... Trust me, after this swell event coming up (the "merger"), and we have a 1 month flat spell, people would donate a finger nail for 3 to 4 foot average granite session.......
Palmy to Miami sits within some of the more heavily sheltered parts of the Gold Coast under south swells. I lived at Miami for 3 years, and super directional south swells seemed to kick in noticeably from about Nobbys/Broady northwards (obviously, this would shift around depending on each swell, but it was a reasonably reliable indicator).
However, it's a fair point - our reporters try their best to write in a 'broad' sense but it's hard to get the wording bang on all of the time. That's why we have a bunch of surfcams as well, to help you refine the decision making process.
Sheepdog wrote:Yeah Fair enough.... All I said was a 4 foot chunky with east in it........ Didn't overamp the situation..... Didn't say "all time", just a 4 foot chunky, which it is... Granite will be fun after lunch...... Surfing is very subjective, ben..... The four foot chunk yesterday afternoon, and even the high tide little sliders right now on the inner points would've been celebrated back in early december, when the sunshine coast was going through weeks upon weeks of flatness..... Trust me, after this swell event coming up (the "merger"), and we have a 1 month flat spell, people would donate a finger nail for 3 to 4 foot average granite session.......
Didn't look chunky to me SD - I watched all of the cams and it looked like a weak local windswell from the E/SE fetch that developed just south of the TC on Monday morning.
I know we're splitting hairs here however the topic came up on Sunday after dromodreamer05 commented in Friday's forecast (on Saturday night) that he was "really starting to froth for Sunny coast stand up pits (Noosa), even BOM is calling a steep rise in swell due Tuesday arvo".
I just wanted to keep a lid on any hopes of "Sunny coast stand up pits".
Sure Ben, not a criticism, very appreciative of all of your work.
On subject of swells, I was talking with my Father-In-Law the other day, and he raised a theory that in a bar, every 7th wave there is a lull. And offshore, every 13th wave there is a lull. I've actually heard this a couple of times before from various different sources. Seems like a pretty dangerous rule of thumb to me, especially when you have more than one swell in the water. Anyone else heard anything along these lines?
Granite never really got to 3-4ft,I surfed it till1500hrs Yesterday it was chunky but in the wrong way it was very weak.Definitley plenty of East in it cause the size was similar in at Tea Tree and even some nice sets at the Pot now and then.Surfed the Rivermouth this morning and it was barely 2 ft and very weak.I think Your both right to a point,it was surprizing to Me that it wasn,t better given the wind strengths in the area.
And what about that latest ascat image showing the Low of Frazer!
tobym wrote:I surfed it till1500hrs
At ease, Corporal.
Kaiser, that's a big myth, I've actually heard the opposite, in that the 7th wave is the largest.
Truth is 7 waves sets are pretty rare in any case, and a 13 wave set, jeez not many of those around!
You do see the largest waves of the set grouped in the middle of the set though.
"And what about that latest ascat image showing the Low of Frazer!"
Wow, that's a nutty ASCAT Pass.
shame that thing is moving away so quickly.
Toby, yesterday you wrote - " 2 to 3 foot with some bigger ones".... going on that, and the buoy data, I'd say by evening yesterday, it would've been bigger..... Heaps of fun little 1 to 2 foot peelers at first point now..... Shame about the pre easter crowd.......
Took some screengrabs from our Moffats surfcam last night.. this was a 'set wave' as far as I could see (watched for 5-10 mins). Looks decidedly un-punchy.
Yeah thats about right SD, Tea Tree looked really fun yesterday arvo the Local shredders had the best ones wrapped up.The Crowd,its a beast a living entity in its own right,made up of Bodies,feeding on swell.
Yep, the photos confirm east direction... As you can see, it isn't out of the south..... And it sorta looks a newish chunky "close range" swell....... . Not punchy, I agree.... Just raw new easterly chunks....
What I wrote on sunday -
"Growing ene swell midday on tomorrow, will get into noosa, Ben......"................... And it did get into noosa yesterday...
"Tues morn - 7 - 8 second east swell, 4footish', outer point noosa, taper to 2 foot first point..... bad sweep, worse than usual.... very high tide may hide swell early...... Late morning will be better...... Gradual swing in swell to ese by evening."....................... All buoys confirm this..... Have already supplied link.... East swell, around seven seconds..... High tide did hide swell...... Noosa starting to break late morning.... Swell will swing more ese as the day progresses.
"Late tues/Wed on gold coast will be interesting at points more open to south swell, with 2 different swells in the mix.... ese and sse..".......................... We'll see on that one......
ps- If I knew how to take a still shot of first point off the cam, I could take one of a set right now which would back up my "taper to 2 foot first point".......... But hey.......
The only REAL observations from on the ground we've got is Tobym who surfed Noosa yesterday and observed with his own eyes the waves from granites to first point. He's clearly said that there was VERY LITTLE size drop between Granites and First Point. To me this indicates the swell was in fact NE, or even N/NE, and in fact coming from the NE quadrant of Ita (the ASCAT pass pic that Ben posted yesterday). As SD said, there's no way an E/NE swell will be the same size at Granites AND first point, so for me, based on Tobym's actual real observations, I'm going with a NE swell yesterday afternoon.
As for today......who gives a feck as Noosa is tiny and everywhere else was/is blown out up the SC.
SD, Mark's usually pretty spot on with his reports also.
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/sunshine-coast
donweather wrote:To me this indicates the swell was in fact NE, or even N/NE, and in fact coming from the NE quadrant of Ita (the ASCAT pass pic that Ben posted yesterday). As SD said, there's no way an E/NE swell will be the same size at Granites AND first point, so for me, based on Tobym's actual real observations, I'm going with a NE swell yesterday afternoon.
For the record, I disagree. If we were seeing N/NE swell from the NE quadrant of Ita, the lines would have been much more defined, and the buoys would have recorded higher swell periods. Translation time from the fetch to the coast was too quick (we wouldn't have seen the small lines that appeared from early afternoon onwards).
IMO, yesterday's small increase was E/SE swell originating from the small fetch that developed right on the coast, on the far southern flank of TC Ita (see ASCAT image below). It was just a small weak windswell, nothing more - nothing less. Surfcam stills confirm the low quality, peaky nature of the surf, which was backed up by Toby's observations.
SD, just to recap, my comments (in last Friday's thread) were mainly centered around dispelling any notion that there would be great waves from TC Ita in SE Qld (which you seemed to counteract at the time) - the actual term used several times was that there wouldn't be anything "meaningful from the NE or E". I think this has proven to be correct. Squabbling about the origins of a weak, localised windswell doesn't really benefit anyone (although I keep persisting!).
However, the reason I was trying to dispel this was because I'd been through the same process in my forecast notes a few days earlier (Mon 7th April). Remember the discussion around the "predicted secondary low" late last week, which was forecast to develop "a small pocket of low pressure splitting off the ese flank of Ita"? You also wrote that "by 6am sat, it is trying to ramp up.... By 6pm Sat, it has become it's own entity".
There was a suggestion that this could generate good surf for SE Qld. So I downplayed the chances of any swell coming from that system too. It's in this thread:
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/108341
For my part, my Friday forecast (for yesterday/today) relied too heavily on model guidance which suggests the fetch feeding into TC Ita from the south would be S/SE in direction (and not E/SE, as eventuated). Hence my comments about the surf not getting into Noosa very well.
As it turns out, TC Ita retained its characteristics for longer than I expected, meaning instead of becoming absorbed into the trough and whisked to the SE from Sunday onwards, it retained curvature and was more like a cut-off low. This E/SE fetch generated the small windswell seen over the last 24 hours. So yeah, I got that part wrong.
However, it's important to stick to top line points - and when there's a Cat 1 cyclone just off the cast, many people seem to assume that there'll be good waves as a result. Therefore, my comments on Sunday (in Friday's thread) regarding SE Qld surf potential for Mon/Tues dismissed any chance of anything worthwhile. Especially on a weekend when time is limited, and quick answers are really all anyone wants.
Whew.. that was long. Can we move on now?
Just for the record there was a small but very distinct NE/ENE swell signal in the water at Lennox through the bottom of the tide this arvo.
Obviously the dominant signal was SSE.
That had to be from ex TC Ita.
thermalben wrote:donweather wrote:To me this indicates the swell was in fact NE, or even N/NE, and in fact coming from the NE quadrant of Ita (the ASCAT pass pic that Ben posted yesterday). As SD said, there's no way an E/NE swell will be the same size at Granites AND first point, so for me, based on Tobym's actual real observations, I'm going with a NE swell yesterday afternoon.
For the record, I disagree. If we were seeing N/NE swell from the NE quadrant of Ita, the lines would have been much more defined, and the buoys would have recorded higher swell periods. Translation time from the fetch to the coast was too quick (we wouldn't have seen the small lines that appeared from early afternoon onwards).
IMO, yesterday's small increase was E/SE swell originating from the small fetch that developed right on the coast, on the far southern flank of TC Ita (see ASCAT image below). It was just a small weak windswell, nothing more - nothing less. Surfcam stills confirm the low quality, peaky nature of the surf, which was backed up by Toby's observations.
SD, just to recap, my comments (in last Friday's thread) were mainly centered around dispelling any notion that there would be great waves from TC Ita in SE Qld (which you seemed to counteract at the time) - the actual term used several times was that there wouldn't be anything "meaningful from the NE or E". I think this has proven to be correct. Squabbling about the origins of a weak, localised windswell doesn't really benefit anyone (although I keep persisting!).
However, the reason I was trying to dispel this was because I'd been through the same process in my forecast notes a few days earlier (Mon 7th April). Remember the discussion around the "predicted secondary low" late last week, which was forecast to develop "a small pocket of low pressure splitting off the ese flank of Ita"? You also wrote that "by 6am sat, it is trying to ramp up.... By 6pm Sat, it has become it's own entity".
There was a suggestion that this could generate good surf for SE Qld. So I downplayed the chances of any swell coming from that system too. It's in this thread:
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/108341
For my part, my Friday forecast (for yesterday/today) relied too heavily on model guidance which suggests the fetch feeding into TC Ita from the south would be S/SE in direction (and not E/SE, as eventuated). Hence my comments about the surf not getting into Noosa very well.
As it turns out, TC Ita retained its characteristics for longer than I expected, meaning instead of becoming absorbed into the trough and whisked to the SE from Sunday onwards, it retained curvature and was more like a cut-off low. This E/SE fetch generated the small windswell seen over the last 24 hours. So yeah, I got that part wrong.
However, it's important to stick to top line points - and when there's a Cat 1 cyclone just off the cast, many people seem to assume that there'll be good waves as a result. Therefore, my comments on Sunday (in Friday's thread) regarding SE Qld surf potential for Mon/Tues dismissed any chance of anything worthwhile. Especially on a weekend when time is limited, and quick answers are really all anyone wants.
Whew.. that was long. Can we move on now?
Ohhhh no... never move on... NEEEVEEER!!!!!! lol ;).... Ben, before I was "here", and I've only been here a few weeks,,,, the swellnet forecast thread was an area with hardly any comments.....People are welcome to go back and have a look.... So, I might get under some folks skin, but I am glad I have been partly responsible, along with yourself, craig, don, free ride, mitch and many others to stir up some interest (SEQ in particular) in what I believe to be the most important sector of your site. I love the interaction... If I shit you to tears, just ignore me....
Now, at no stage did I say Ita would create all time point surf.... You are a busy man, but you are welcome to check.... I just said it will get into noosa, and as we speak, dead low has occurred and things are getting better by the minute...... I said the swell would be out of the ene -e -ese. It is..... No 3 foot sse swell would be doing what I am seeing right now.... I still haven't be able to fix the "plugins problem"... So I have to use a rivals cam... From that angle, I can see some dudes shredding out at Natios'....... I thought the swell was actually going to be a touch bigger, and I am glad I begrudgingly put 2 to 4 foot...... I nearly wrote 4 to 5 at granite.......
Now...... DON!!!!! never said it would be all time.....Instead of saying "fair call sheepy", We get the "who gives a feck" line.... Un...fuckn... believable....... When someone pulls out the "who gives a feck" line, you know they are dusted........ No grace....... I give a feck, whether it's 2 foot, or 10 foot.... Accuracy, mate........When ALL BUOYS match your call, you quote them, Don.... When all buoys pinpoint EXACTLY what I said, you write "SD, one must always take the SE Qld wave buoy directions with a grain of salt"
Have a look at a map of noosa...... And draw an ENE line from Granite to Tea tree... Then do that for Tea tree to boiling pot.... Unbelievable.....
Now go and have a look at the noosa surf cam...... Right now.... Heaps of nice little lines - 2 foot... as i said.... But who gives a feck, right..... ;)
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=brisbane_wave
ah Doggie, I agree with you , but sometimes I feel like kicking you in the nuts.
Mate, I'll hit you so fast and so many times you'll think you're surrounded....... ;)
anyway, it's good to have some drinking partners here in the forecasting front bar.
I'll have a Shandy;)
A shandy!!!!??????!!!!!!!
I wonder if its an Australian Terrier in disguise they really like to dig,tho are genrally well behaved.
Free ride, could you imagine "The Swellnet Annual Bloggers Awards", held at the crown, co hosted by Andrew Johns and Cameron Ling????? What a night!!!! ;) Hmmm I feel a new blog topic coming on lol
Ben, if the swell was from the east yesterday, why would tobym state that there was very little size difference between granites and first point? As SD has always stated, with the swell from the east and very low period, one would always expect to see severe dilution between granites and 1st point. Tobym stated quite clearly this was not the case yesterday.
And SD, apologies if my who gives a feck comment was taken incorrectly. I wasn't having a go at you....merely stating this morning Noosa was almost lake like, compared to yesterday arvo, and with all open beaches blown to buggery, Noosa would have been the only option today/this morning for a surf, and yet it was crap (small).
And Ben, from what I was seeing on the Noosa cam yesterday, the lines were very well defined. I couldn't believe how well defined they were and they were lining up nicely all the way down first point and into Noosa main beach. Some guys were getting rides all the way in on the low tide....certainly not what you would expect to see from a junky local E'ly windswell IMO.
Chalk and cheese comparing Noosa yesterday arvo swell lines to todays Moffats pics you posted above Ben.
freeride76 wrote:Just for the record there was a small but very distinct NE/ENE swell signal in the water at Lennox through the bottom of the tide this arvo.
Obviously the dominant signal was SSE.
That had to be from ex TC Ita.
Byron buoy also showing this very faint signal Steve.
And with much more tastier morsals forming over near our sheep shaggin isle friends, I suggest we close this discussion (all agree to disagree) and move on to the real juice that Ita will deliver for the east coast.
Actually DW,there was a size difference as usual,and the swell was weak, but yes there was a couple of sets making it thru to boiling pot and down. I didn,t give First Point more than a glance really.I thought it was a pretty junky swell,and I think any of the other Locals would tend to agree.
ha ha..funny to read this thread having lived/surfed many of the places mentioned.
God that swell looks terrible, seen so many days like that on Noosa's points, yeah sure it gets better as the tide drops, but its still dick tease puss, im sure with the odd little low tide runner that the hungry local grooms will snavel.
Those Moffat pics, im with Sheepy, it looks like its got a fair bit of east direction in it, i lived not far from there for a while, man that wave is terrible even at its best its unpunchy, so frustrating that area.
Totally agree with Thermalben comments about South swells on the Goldie, in regard to missing most of the south end of goldie then beachies start catching the swell from Nobbies/Sth mermaid.(lived at mermaid, broad beach, then surfers, then burnt myself out partying)
Also agree generally speaking the surfing world get too excited about cyclone swells.
Re: The Ballina Report.
Despite wildly varying conditions, gradations in size, quality and surf character the report has been 5/10 the last three days.
How is anyone supposed to get a reasonable clue about surf quality from that?
I just look at the pics Steve!!! ;)
I look at the actual surf.
But the blokes wildly misleading air swings are doing damage to Swellnets' credibility as a reliable source of surf report information.
I've just read today's Ballina surf report and it looks fine to me. The estimated size looks about spot on, the wording is fine and there's a couple of images as well. Web traffic to the report is fine too. Really can't see any "wildly misleading air swings".
freeride76 wrote:I look at the actual surf.
Some of us don't have that luxury Steve!!!
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th April)
Best Days: SE Qld: Tues: peaky waves about the open points. Sat: small/mod but quality E/SE groundswell. Northern NSW: Tues-Fri: moderate pulsey SE swell with good winds in the mornings. Easter Sat/Sun: quality E/SE groundswell (biggest in the south) with good winds.
Recap: Tiny conditions for Saturday in most areas, ahead of a building south swell on Sunday that mainly favoured exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (with little size getting into SE Qld). Some swell magnets in the Mid North reached epic proportions late Sunday (reportedly 8-10ft), but it seems locations north of Coffs dipped out in the size department. Today we’ve seen building short range E/SE and S/SE swells in SE Qld as local winds strengthen in response to TC Ita passing to the north-east. SE swells have otherwise persisted about the Mid North Coast with some 5-6ft waves reported at swell magnets, however it’s generally smaller at most locations and especially north of Coffs again.
This week (Apr 16-19 onwards)
With TC Ita slowly weakening and quickly tracking to the south-east, we’re not going to see any meaningful swell from it in SE Qld.
The reason for this is simple - despite very strong winds about TC Ita’s eastern and northern flank (Cato Island was gusting N’ly at 59kts around 3:30pm), the system is tracking perpendicular to Queensland’s swell window, so it’s constantly having to work on top of an ocean state that is not yet primed for development (the pre-existing swell energy in the water is S/SE, and the local E/SE winds being experienced along the coastal margin don’t extend very far out into the Coral Sea).
And with a forward speed of around 25km/hr, it's simply outrunning its own fetch which is very small in diameter anyway.
However, SE winds have been strengthening all day about the SE Qld region - as TC Ita butts up against a ridge of high pressure along the coast - and they’ll continue to build a local swell for the coast that’ll peak in size on Tuesday. Quality won’t be especially high but we should see 2-3ft+ waves about the open points, with larger (but very wind affected) surf in the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches. This swell will then ease in size from Wednesday onwards.
Northern NSW won’t see any influence from TC Ita at all, not even its western flank (like SE Qld will through Tues/Wed). This is because TC Ita is essentially a ‘cut-off’ low; the ridge across the coast has been slightly downgraded since Friday’s forecast, and as a consequence the southern extent of the SE infeed stops at around Byron latitudes.
As such, the only existing swell generator for Northern NSW is the current Tasman Low, which is moving idly about the southern and central Tasman Sea, still with considerable strength.
In fact, this system is expected to provide swell to the Northern NSW Coast for the rest of the week, smaller than what will be experienced in the southern half of the state but still up to 3ft or maybe 4ft at exposed south swell magnets (smaller elsewhere due to the swell direction). Wind wise we’re expecting moderate southerlies for the most part, but early SW winds are likely in most areas. A more general W/SW breeze will then fill in on Friday, providing offshores at most coasts.
SE Qld can expect small surf through the back half of the week. With the short range energy anticipated for Tuesday expected to disappear quickly throughout Wednesday, the only source of new energy on Thursday and Friday will be small residual energy from the Tasman Low.
At this stage it appears the swell direction and generally low period will work against locations north of the border, so don’t expect much action on the open points - the best waves will be at exposed beaches as winds veer to the SW, with size in the 2-3ft range.
This weekend (Apr 20-21)
As discussed in Friday’s notes, sometime this Wednesday the remnants of ex-TC Ita are expected to slide through the Northern Tasman Sea, merging with the existing Tasman Low. This is expected to develop a brand new, intense low pressure system immediately west of Cook Strait (the body of water separating NZ’s North and South Islands), super-charging a fresh fetch of easterly gales aimed mainly towards the southern half of NSW.
The leading edge of the resulting easterly groundswell is expected to arrive overnight on Friday (probably too late for any noticeable increase) with Saturday on target for a strong increase about the Northern NSW Coast. However, as this fetch will be mainly aimed south of the region, we’ll probably see smaller surf size here than in the south of the state (which should reach 5-6ft). Exposed beaches between Seal Rocks and about Coffs Harbour are likely to see wave heights in the 4-5ft+ range, with smaller 3-4ft+ surf at exposed beaches from Coffs to about Byron.
North of the border, open SE Qld beaches should see 3ft+ surf but with smaller 2ft waves about the open points. Conditions should be very good in most areas with light winds and sea breezes.
Saturday’s swell will then ease slowly throughout Sunday, however conditions should remain very good with light winds and sea breezes the dominant feature. Aim for an exposed beach - preferably along the Northern NSW Coast - and you’ll do well.
Next week (Apr 22 onwards)
Sunday’s easing E’ly swell will probably drop out rapidly into Monday, however we’ve got a potential south swell for Northern NSW on the cards early next week, thanks to a front entering the southern Tasman Sea on Saturday. More on this in Wednesday’s update.