Submitted by Craig on Mon, 04/14/2014 - 11:48
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th April)
Best Days: Wednesday morning both coasts, Thursday morning exposed spots, Friday onwards west of Melbourne
The weekend was a write off across both coasts with a persistent and fresh SE wind and junky mix of SE windswell and SW groundswell.
Today the surf is poor again with a low point in swell and slightly more favourable E/SE winds.
This week and weekend (Apr 14 - 21)
A fun pulse of SW groundswell is due to arrive late today and peak tomorrow across the state, generated during the weekend by a strong mid-latitude front dipping east-southeast from under WA towards the polar shelf.
This should kick up a good 2-3ft+ of SW groundswell across the Surf Coast tomorrow with larger 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but conditions will remain average with a light and lingering SE breeze. This may swing more E'ly east of Melbourne, so keep an eye on local wind observations.
A reinforcing SW groundswell pulse due Wednesday has been downgraded slightly, with the secondary polar front firing up on the tail of the system responsible for tomorrow's swell being weaker than anticipated. Instead we should see a slow drop in size Wednesday from 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively as N/NE winds favour the beaches breaks across both regions. The Torquay region may see a period of N/NW winds, favouring the reefs during the morning.
Moving into the end of the week, we'll see the first pulse of W/SW groundswell generated by a frontal system falling under the influence of the Long Wave Trough. A node of the LWT will intensify west of the Bight through the middle of this week (pictured right), supercharging and steering a series of vigorous polar fronts up through our western swell window. The initial swell will be generated by a short-lived but intense mid-latitude low under WA, resulting in the direction being quite west in nature. Size wise, at the peak on Friday morning we should see 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Of greater importance is the follow up large W/SW groundswell due on Saturday, generated by a large and broad polar front firing up from the Heard Island region today before being steered by the LWT up through the Bight.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be generated through our swell window from today through until Thursday morning (pictured right), when the system will break down, generating a very large and powerful W/SW groundswell for Saturday.
A peak in the 5-6ft+ range is due across the Surf Coast, with larger 8-10ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula but winds look to be moderate to fresh from the W/SW. The Surf Coast should see an early W/NW'ly creating clean waves on the protected reefs.
The swell should drop through Sunday under pre-frontal NW winds, but a late W/SW change is on the cards.
On the tail of the vigorous front responsible for Saturday's swell we should see another much smaller system firing up, generating a medium sized reinforcing W/SW groundswell for Monday, keeping the Surf Coast topped up with 3-4ft sets, while the Mornington Peninsula should see more size to 6ft+. Winds look to linger from the W/SW across most spots, besides Torquay which should see an early morning offshore W/NW'ly.
Next Tuesday onwards (Apr 22 onwards)
The strong amplification of the Long Wave Trough will weaken into the end of the week and weekend, resulting in a slight relaxation of activity in the Southern Ocean. In saying this there's plenty of medium sized SW groundswell on the cards throughout next week, but we'll review this Wednesday.
So do ya reckon they'll run Bells on Sat/Sun then? Shame winds don't look favourable for Sat and swell looks to wane for Sunday when the winds look better for Bells.
Yeah, I'd say almost cetainly, but Saturday morning will be clean for a period as mentioned above. The Torquay region usually sees an offshore land breeze from the W/NW under these synoptic post frontal SW flows.
Have I mentioned how much I hate Easter!
I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.
Just trying to pick my FS team!!! :)
Well dunnyweather, that's pretty easy, the top six women with no clothes on, now thats a fantasy surf team!!