Submitted by Craig on Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:39
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th April)
Best Days: Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday in protected southern corners, Wednesday morning
Tiny average surf was seen through yesterday and this has persisted into this morning, but a late kick in stormy S/SE swell should have been seen across the coast with strong S/SE winds.
This weekend and early next week (Apr 12 - 16)
A deepening surface trough and embedded low have moved off off the Australian mainland and we're seeing a cold front pushing up from our south merging with the low, intensifying it further into tomorrow.
This front should of brought strong S/SE winds to the coast and into tomorrow we'll see a broad fetch of strong to gale-force E/SE winds aimed through our swell window as the Tasman Low pushes slowly east into the central Tasman Sea.
This should kick up a moderate-large and stormy E/SE swell tomorrow to 3-5ft across open beaches but with fresh and slowly easing SE winds.
A stronger pulse of E'ly groundswell is due into Sunday afternoon though from the core wind speeds around the southern flank of the low on Saturday evening (pictured right).
This swell should peak Sunday afternoon to 4-5ft across open beaches before tailing off slowly into Monday and Tuesday as a result of the low weakening from Sunday onwards.
In saying this one smaller reinforcing pulse of E'ly groundswell is due later Tuesday and early Wednesday from a fetch of gales pushing down along New Zealand's South Island Sunday. This should keep good 3ft+ surf hitting open beaches.
Winds from Sunday onwards will improve as the low moves away from us, tending variable Sunday morning with light offshores Monday, while Tuesday will see a less favourable S'ly change moving through. Wednesday will likely see variable winds again but they may linger from the east.
Longer term (Apr 17 onwards)
The longer term remains more than active as we possibly see the remnants of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita pushing into the Tasman Sea and combining with the Tasman Low, resulting in a re-intensification and solid pulse of SE or E'ly groundswell next weekend.
Check back here on Monday for the latest on this though.
Still working it out down here.... I do find the east coast "bar graph" rather odd for late monday/tues.... 2 -3 foot????http://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/tasmania/st-helens/forecast
What do you mean SD, showing 4ft late Tuesday for me and 4-5ft early Wed..
Re read my post, craig.....
Ah yes I see, sorry late Monday/Tuesday. Why you disagree? There'll be a definite low point in surf between the swell off the southern flank of the Tasman Low, and then the new E'ly groundswell from the West Coast of New Zealand.
Mate, as you know I sorta got qld down pat..... But only been living down here for 4 years.... Alot different than Coolum..... That southern low seems like a decent system..... I'm Picturing something like that southern low sitting out off Fraser Island, and what would Coolum be like, just to "get my head around it" re' "down here"....... If that was out off Fraser, I couldn't see the sunny coast dropping to 2 -3 foot.....
It'll be interesting to watch...... Always looking......
I agree as well, I think the model is overcooking the drop in size. Prob remain 3-4ft into Monday afternoon, with a low point Wednesday morning, but again still holding an easy 3ft+. Let us know how you go.
Will do.... Cheers...