Submitted by Craig on Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:42
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th of April)
Best Days: Monday, Wednesday morning, Friday
A moderate mix of new W/NW swell and long-range SW groundswell peaked in the 3-5ft range across the South West yesterday, with 1-2ft waves in Perth, while Gero started off slow and in the 2ft range, but an increase to 2-3ft was seen during the afternoon.
Morning offshores gave wave to weak sea breezes and then a glass-off in the South West and around Perth, while Geraldton saw stronger afternoon sea breezes.
Today was smaller across most regions with fading 2-3ft sets in the South West, 1-1.5ft waves around Perth and 2-3ft surf up at Gero under morning offshores.
This weekend and Monday (Apr 12 – 14)
Give the surf a miss tomorrow as the swell will bottom out as a weak S'ly change pushes through leaving no real quality options for a surf.
Sunday will start off slow but there's been no real change to the forecast from Wednesday, with a mix of medium-range and longer-range SW groundswell due to fill in during the day in the South West (with the larger longer-range energy peaking Monday).
The medium-range swell was generated by an intense but short-lived mid-latitude low firing up to our west-southwest and should reach 3-4ft during the afternoon in the South West, much smaller elsewhere.
The stronger long-range groundswell was generated by a vigorous polar low in the Heard Island region and should peak at a good but inconsistent 5-6ft in the South West, 2ft in Perth and 3-4ft around Gero.
Winds on Sunday will be fresh and gusty from the SE in general, and with the small amounts of swell, nowhere will really be worth a look.
Monday looks like the day though with morning offshores from the E/SE in the South West, E/NE in Perth and NE up at Gero.
Next Tuesday onwards (Apr 15 onwards)
The models are finally in alignment on what's instore next week and we're looking at a couple of solid pulses of SW groundswell through the second half of next week, culminating in a large pulse on Friday.
This will be related to a node of the Long Wave Trough intensifying directly west of us during the middle to end of next week, steering a series of vigorous cold fronts up towards us (illustrated right).
The first system will be a mid-latitude low firing up to our west-southwest and pushing across the South West Tuesday evening, generating a close-range swell with average winds.
Friday's swell, which will be one of the strongest swells we've seen in some time, will develop from a polar low west of Heard Island generating a fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force W/SW winds while tracking east along the polar shelf towards us. This system should then be projected up closer to us through next week, producing a SW groundswell in the 10-12ft range for the South West, 2-3ft in Perth and 6-8ft up at Gero.
Winds are looking favourable as well with offshore E/SE breezes, but we'll have to confirm all of this on Monday so check back then for an update.