Submitted by Craig on Wed, 04/09/2014 - 16:41
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th of April)
Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning
Small clean waves padded out yesterday, while today was offshore again during the morning but still small.
The forerunners of a new W/NW swell from ex-Tropical Cyclone Ivanoe have been picked up by buoys across the state but no considerable increase in size has been seen, with a new long-range SW groundswell being more evident.
This week (Apr 9 – 11)
Today's small increase in SW and W/NW swells should peak tomorrow with inconsistent 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets due across exposed spots in the South West, 2ft waves around Perth and 3ft surf up at Gero as winds remain favourably offshore from the E/NE. Winds will tend a little less favourable NE during the morning in the South West, so hit up those more exposed breaks for the cleanest conditions.
The swell will drop through Friday and Saturday with similar winds to tomorrow on the former and increasing onshores Saturday as a weak change pushes through.
This weekend onwards (Apr 12 onwards)
As touched on above, Saturday will be poor with a small swell and increasing onshores, while Sunday will start off slow ahead of the arrival of a long-range and medium-range SW groundswell during the day.
The medium-range will be produced by a small and intense mid-latitude low firing up temporarily to our south-west tomorrow and is only expected to produce a small increase Sunday afternoon to 3ft+ in the South West, 1ft+ in Perth and 2ft up in Gero.
A stronger long-range SW groundswell generated by a vigorous polar low in the Heard Island from today through until Friday (pictured right) should produce a much better SW groundswell for Monday, peaking at 5-6ft in the South West, 2ft in Perth and 3-5ft up at Gero with offshore E/SE winds.
A drop in size is expected into the middle of the week and beyond this the outlook is unclear as the models are still divergent on the developments off the East Coast of the country and the possibility of a broad and strong Tasman Low. The down-flow effects of this system will be seen over our way, so until the models agree on what develops on the other side of the country we'll have to sit tight. Check back here Friday for another update though.