Submitted by Craig on Wed, 04/09/2014 - 11:38
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th April)
Best Days: No good days
Tuesday was a smaller version of Monday with an easing swell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula under morning N'ly winds, but these strengthened during the day as the swell continued to ease.
Today we're leftover with small but clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under rainy skies and persistent N/NE winds. Make the most of the swell though as we'll see even smaller surf into this afternoon and tomorrow.
This week (Apr 9 - 11)
Tomorrow morning will become a low point in swell activity and NE winds will favour exposed spots across the state. A slight kick in inconsistent background SW swell energy is due during the afternoon ahead of a peak Friday, but this will be overwritten by a building S'ly windswell.
The windswell will be created as a deepening surface trough moves in from the west and aims a fetch of strong to gale-force S'ly winds into us. Conditions will be poor and although the swell will build there'll be nowhere to get in a quality wave.
This weekend onwards ( Apr 12 onwards)
The surface trough linked to Friday's increase in windswell will drift into the Southern Tasman Sea on Friday evening and aim a fetch of weakening SE winds towards us on Saturday. This will result in the windswell swinging SE in direction on Saturday while easing slowly under strong but easing E/SE winds.
Sunday isn't looking too much better with a moderate to fresh E/SE wind and mix of easing SW groundswell and SE windswell, so the weekend is looking poor surf-wise.
Into next week the outlook is still a little up in the air with the models struggling to resolve how Tropical Cyclone Ita will evolve off Northern Queensland.
It looks like we may see some medium sized W/SW groundswell from mid next week onwards but we'll have to review this again Friday.
I tried last weekends conditions on the surf coast but it was truely shit conditions..
Is there anywhere i can go on the surf coast thats even a little bit protected?
2 weekends in a row of poor surf haha trust it only happens when you pick up a new stick.
Sorry to say but with E/SE winds (looking more SE now on the weekend), there's nowhere to get a decent wave in. Better off heading the other side of Melbourne.
Yeah thats what id figured.. any tips for p.i or even peninsula? Thanks
Not giving too much away, but if you have a look at a map you'll see that the western ends of each area will handle a N'ly better, but at the other ends...
Thanks craig im new to all this. Trying to get a handle on it. Appreciate ur help.