Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast (Thu 3rd Apr)

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Thursday, 3 Apr 2014 at 1:57pm

Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday April 3rd)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

This week and weekend (Apr 3 - 6)

Tomorrow is still looking to be the pick of the period around the Ments with the arrival of an inconsistent but good S/SW groundswell across Western Indonesia.

Size wise, we should see 3-5ft sets at exposed south facing breaks in the Ments with a touch less size towards Nias, and the odd 6ft set in Southern Sumatra.

This swell will back off slowly into the weekend but a funky W/SW swell is due to arrive through Sunday and persist through Monday.

This will be generated by the northern flank of a tropical depression sitting south of Sri Lanka, with a persistent fetch of strong W'ly winds forecast to be aimed towards Sumatra (pictured right).

The Southern Mentawai's should see the most size from this system, coming in at 3ft+ across exposed breaks from Sunday afternoon through Monday. Winds on Sunday will be dicey and moderate to fresh from the N/NW, but more variable winds should return into the start of next week.

Next week onwards (Apr 7 onwards)

The W'ly swell should ease through Tuesday but a new acute S'ly groundswell is due on Tuesday across exposed south facing breaks. The source of this swell is a strong polar low firing up east of Heard Island on the edge of our swell window, and Southern Sumatra should see the most size from this system.

An inconsistent 3-4ft+ wave is expected in the Ments, with larger 4-6ft waves in Southern Sumatra and smaller surf back up towards Nias.

Beyond this there's nothing too major on the cards until the week starting the 14th of April, but we'll review this again Tuesday.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Thursday, 3 Apr 2014 at 2:05pm

Would have to be some rare novelty breaks appearing from this W/SW swell direction one would think?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 3 Apr 2014 at 2:18pm

I wouldn't think too many Don as there's not too much size to it. Any normal 6ft SW groundswell would wrap into the spots picking up the west swell just as much.

CAsurfer93's picture
CAsurfer93's picture
CAsurfer93 commented Thursday, 3 Apr 2014 at 2:23pm

I know its a little early, but what but what are we thinking for the 14th-26th? A more active period or more of the same?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 3 Apr 2014 at 2:26pm

Still too hard to say at this real early stage, but with the coming week or so of subdued activity you'd think something would have to give. 

Very early outlook is for some medium-large swell for Tuesday/Wednesday the 15/16th, but keep an eye on these updates for the best idea.

astro's picture
astro's picture
astro commented Tuesday, 8 Apr 2014 at 5:24am

Heyaa, any chance of an update this week? Heading to the Ments on Friday :D Cheers

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 8 Apr 2014 at 6:04am

We'll have another update on Thursday.