Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st March)
Best Days: Sunday
There's been nothing of note the last couple of days, but we'll see some interesting developments into the weekend.
This week (Apr 3 - 4)
The surf will remain tiny into the end of the week with offshores tomorrow, while a change during the evening will see lingering SE tending E'ly winds into Friday. We may see a possible late increase in E'ly swell but this is dicussed in more detail below.
This week onwards (Apr 5 onwards)
Tomorrow evening's onshore change and burst of cold air will feed into a deepening surface trough across Victoria and Lower New South Wales, with a deepening mid-latitude low expected to form in the South Western Tasman Sea through Friday.
This low is expected to sit south-east of Green Cape, north of us, but an infeed of strong to near gale-force E/SE winds feeding into its southern flank will be within our eastern swell window.
With the low expected to stall through Saturday before starting to move east and out of our swell window Sunday we should see a small-medium sized E'ly swell develop for the top half of the East Coast, with smaller surf down towards Eagle Hawk Neck.
At this stage we should see 2ft waves developing through Saturday although with moderate onshore SE winds, ahead of a peak Sunday to 2-3ft at open beaches (smaller down across EHN).
Winds look good Sunday as well as the low moves away with light offshore morning breezes ahead of an afternoon NE sea breeze.
It's worth keeping in mind there is some model divergence regarding the positioning and intensity of this low, so check back Friday for confirmation of the weekend's forecast.
Into next week the swell will ease and we may see some NE windswell through the middle of the week followed by some more interesting developments next weekend. But we'll update this Friday.