Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/31/2014 - 17:02
South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 31st March)
Best Days: Tuesday with offshores and a slow increase in new swell, Thursday and Friday on the Mid, Sunday and Monday mornings down South
The weekend saw fun waves across the South Coast with a light variable and offshore wind Saturday morning and good sized swell for Waits and Parsons, while Sunday was smaller but cleaner for longer with offshores persisting all morning.
Today the swell has bottomed out as expected with tiny to near flat conditions across the South Coast under an all day offshore.
This week (March 31 – Apr 4)
Tomorrow will be fun with a slow increase in long-range swell across the South Coast and all day offshores. Better swell is due Wednesday onwards through until the weekend owing to the Long Wave Trough stalling and strengthening across the Bight.
This will steer a series of vigorous polar fronts up from below Western Australia, towards us as they grow in intensity.
The first pulse due on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday will have a mix of W/SW and SW in its direction, with the Mid Coast expected to see sets to 2ft during the day Thursday. A secondary larger increase is due on Friday as a much stronger polar front piggybacks up over the top of the system generating Wednesday's swell, aiming a fetch of severe-gale SW winds through our swell window (pictured right).
This should again come in at 2ft across the Mid Coast, while the South Coast should jump to 4-5ft at Middleton with larger 4-6ft sets at Waits.
Winds will unfortunately be onshore down South and moderate to fresh from the S/SE Thursday, while Friday should see slightly more favourable E/SE winds. The Mid Coast will be clean as a whistle though and offer fun waves most of the day.
This weekend onwards (April 5 onwards)
Friday's swell will back off into Saturday ahead of a new longer-range SW groundswell Sunday. This swell won't be as big as Friday's due to it being created further away and the storm not being as intense as the system generating Friday's swell.
The Mid will miss out on more size as well with inconsistent 1ft+ waves, while the South Coast should see 3-5ft sets at Middleton and 4-5ft at Waits. Winds look better though for down South with an E/NE'ly Sunday morning and NE winds Monday, but we'll review this again on Wednesday.
Longer term, it's a little tricky to forecast with the models diverging on the development and movement of a low in the South Western Tasman Sea, but we should have a clearer idea by Wednesday.