Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/31/2014 - 14:18
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 31st March)
Best Days: Tuesday afternoon exposed spots, Wednesday morning, possibly early Thursday on the Surf Coast before an onshore change
Saturday was great across exposed coasts with an easing small swell and light offshore winds. Sunday saw smaller waves with lighter and variable winds during the morning, creating glassy and slightly lumpy conditions.
Today the surf has remained small to tiny across the state as local offshores created clean conditions.
This week and weekend (Mar 31 – Apr 6)
As touched on Friday we'll enter an active period of waves from Wednesday onwards as a node of the Long Wave Trough intensifies through the Bight this week, directing a series of strong polar fronts up towards us.
Initially a long-range increase in SW groundswell is due tomorrow afternoon but to no major size and exposed spots will offer the best waves with N'ly winds.
A more substantial kick in W/SW groundswell is due Wednesday afternoon ahead of the largest pulse later Thursday and more so Friday morning.
These pulses will be produced by successive and stronger polar fronts piggybacking up towards us during the next couple of days (pictured right), with a peak in size due Friday morning to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are unfortunately looking average though as a trough moves through Thursday bringing an onshore S'ly change that will then linger into Friday from the S/SE.
Saturday doesn't look any better as winds swing fresh E/SE and the swell drops away.
Another good pulse of SW groundswell is due on Sunday but from a weaker and farther away Southern Ocean storm resulting in a touch less size and more inconsistency compared to Thursday and Friday's swells.
Winds are too tricky to forecast at this stage though as a deepening inland surface trough will most likely form into a low off the Gippsland Coast resulting in either E/SE tending NE winds into early next week or more variable winds Sunday, but we'll review this again Wednesday.
Longer term the outlook is too tricky to forecast with the current model divergence, but have a check back Wednesday.