Submitted by Craig on Fri, 03/28/2014 - 09:32
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th March)
Best Days: Saturday -Tuesday at exposed spots, Wednesday onwards west of Melbourne
Yesterday was quite an interesting day. A surface trough moving south-east across the state brought with it a swing in wind direction from the E/SE during the morning to a light N/NE'ly. With this the weather did clear and conditions cleaned up, but it didn't quite reach further east of Phillip Island.
A shallow change moved through overnight and this left lingering onshores across the Mornington Peninsula, while the Surf Coast saw early light winds and a clean, fun 2-3ft of swell.
This weekend (Mar 29 - 30)
There's no new swell due over the weekend and we'll see wave heights continue to drop out across the state. Winds will become favourable for exposed spots though with a light offshore NE'ly tomorrow ahead of weak sea breezes. Sunday won't be as perfect with a light S'ly wind expected to be blowing through Bass Strait, but locally inshore across most coast, winds should be variable and conditions glassy.
Next week onwards (Mar 31 onwards)
Monday will be the smallest day of the period with the Surf Coast becoming tiny and unsurfable, while the Mornington Peninsula should offer small clean waves under a fresh NE'ly.
From Tuesday afternoon onwards, but more so Wednesday, we'll enter an active period of swell.
This will be related to a node of the Long Wave Trough in the Bight strengthening through the middle of next week. This will effectively steer front after front up from the Southern Ocean towards us (pictured right), and as the LWT strengthens, so will the strength of the fronts as they feed off it.
A period of medium sized SW groundswell is due from Wednesday through until the following Wednesday with a couple of larger pulses on the cards.
An initial moderate increase due on Wednesday will be very inconsistent and from a long-range source, but a much better pulse is due on Thursday/Friday as one of the stronger polar fronts is steered up towards us.
At this stage the largest increase is due next weekend, and winds will generally be from the western quadrant, but we'll review this all again on Monday.
So Craig, is it worth going out tomorrow on the Surf Coast? I'm a beginner. Sometimes I find it hard to know from your forecast whether its worth making the trip or not. Thanks mate.
Yeah well worth a surf midge. Try one of the open beaches like Ocean Grove, Torquay, Jan Juc or Fairhaven. Should be nice and clean in the morning with small waves well suited to beginners.
Thanks for the response and the tips Craig! And thanks for doing us all such a good service with your forecasts, it's much appreciated. Cheers
Hi Craig,thanks for the report.
Do you think that swell arriving on Wednesday/Thursday will get into N.E. king island?and what size? Thanks
Thanks for all ya work Craig.
If King Island isnt pumping my next bet would be Lizards.
Acon, sorry been busy working up the coast.
There'll be small waves, but not worth a fly in/out trip. You need a lot more size to get the spots I think you're referring to work.
Thanks for the info mate!