Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/26/2014 - 16:43
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th March)
Best Days: Thursday morning protected spots east of Melbourne, Friday morning arond Torquay, Saturday-Sunday exposed spots across the state
Sorry for the short notes, on the road this week.
Yesterday was average across all but the most protected breaks with a stiff onshore SE wind (that tended E'ly during the morning east of Melbourne) and a moderate amount of SW groundswell.
Today the swell backed off a touch as a SE windswell kicked in with stronger E'ly winds, favouring protected breaks east of Melbourne again.
This week (Mar 26 - 28)
There's been no change to the size of the strong SW groundswell expected tomorrow but winds are now looking a little average.
A surface trough sitting over the south-east of the country is expected to hold further west than forecast resulting in winds persisting from the E/SE with strength tomorrow morning, creating generally poor conditions. There's a chance for winds to swing E/NE during the morning east of Melbourne, and it's hard to pick as one of the hi-res models shows it staying E/SE most of the morning, while GFS shows it going N/NE. So you'll have to watch the local wind obs closely.
Friday is unfortunately looking less than perfect as well now as the trough moves east bringing onshore SW winds across most of the coast, although Torquay should see an early W'ly, with an easing swell.
This weekend onwards (Mar 29 onwards)
There's nothing significant expected over the weekend with the surf due to bottom out across the state.
Winds however will be favourable for exposed locations, swinging light N/NE Saturday morning and likely light and variable into the afternoon, while Sunday should see generally no wind at all during the morning (with local land breezes more than likely) ahead of SE sea breezes.
The next decent increase in swell is due Tuesday afternoon ahead of a secondary pulse Wednesday but the models have downgraded the size potential of these, with only small and inconsistent waves expected on the Surf Coast. Winds initially will favour the Mornington Peninsula Tuesday and then Surf Coast Wednesday, but we'l, confirm this Friday.
Longer term we may see a better groundswell into next weekend, but winds look to turn for the worse. Check back Friday for the latest on this.