Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/24/2014 - 17:20
Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 21st February)
Best Days: Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday morning
The weekend started off average with an onshore breeze and 2ft or so of swell with no real quality.
Sunday saw cleaner conditions with a smaller and easing 1-2ft of swell under offshore winds. Today another pulse of swell has started to fill in keeping 1-2ft waves hitting Clifton with light offshores, but these have since given into SE sea breezes.
This week (Mar 24 - 28)
A slightly stronger SW groundswell is due tomorrow to 2ft across Clifton with generally favourable offshore NW winds that will then freshen from the West into the afternoon.
Of greater importance is a strong SW groundswell due on Thursday. This is being generated by a vigorous polar front that's currently south-southwest of WA and will push east along the Polar Shelf.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be aimed ideally through our swell window (pictured right), generating a strong SW groundswell that's expected to peak Thursday morning to an inconsistent 3ft+ across Clifton.
Winds will be from the N'th favouring more exposed locations with afternoon sea breezes likely as a funky trough sits over the state.
Come Friday the trough is expected to be sitting off our East Coast, directing average S'ly winds into us, creating poor conditions, so make the most of Thursday.
This weekend onwards (Mar 29 onwards)
As touched on the last few updates, wave heights will bottom out into the weekend and early next week as the storm track goes temporarily quiet. Into next week though we may see a strong amplification of the Long Wave Trough across the Bight, directing a couple of vigorous fronts up towards us.
This may generate a larger SW groundswell for Wednesday/Thursday but we'll review this this coming Wednesday.