Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/24/2014 - 16:08
South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 24th March)
Best Days: Every morning from Wednesday onwards
A solid S/SW groundswell filled in Saturday as fresh morning E/NE winds favoured the Goolwa end of the coast as well as protected locations around Victor and further west. The Mid Coast was clean but tiny.
The swell eased into Sunday as winds tended variable during the morning creating lumpy/glassy conditions while the afternoon was torn to shreds with a fresh sea breeze.
Today early W/NW winds created clean conditions for a brief period with a solid new S/SW groundswell, but a surface trough and strong S/SE change moved through just after sun up, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.
This week (Mar 24 - 28)
There's plenty more S/SW swell due across the South Coast over the coming days but winds will be terrible tomorrow with a fresh SE'ly, while Wednesday should see more favourable E/NE winds developing with an easing S/SW groundswell from 2-3ft along the Middleton stretch and 3ft to occasionally 4ft out at Waits and Parsons.
One final pulse of S/SW groundswell is due Thursday and this will be a touch stronger than the pulses we're seeing earlier this week.
The source of this swell will be a vigorous polar low that's currently south-southwest of WA. This low should aim a fetch of gale to sever-gale W/SW winds through our southern swell window (pictured right), generating a strong pulse of S/SW groundswell for Thursday that's expected to peak during the day to 3-5ft across most locations with the odd bigger bomb possible at Waits and Parsons.
The Mid Coast won't see much above 0.5ft due to the swells southerly nature.
Conditions on Thursday are looking good with a strengthening inland surface trough expected to sit just to our east and this should see light and variable (likely NE winds) ahead of S/SE sea breezes. Friday is a little dicey but a variable wind is more than likely ahead of a weak S'ly change.
This weekend onwards (Mar 29 onwards)
As touched on the last few updates, wave heights will bottom out after Thursday's pulse of swell into the weekend, but winds should be favourable for exposed beaches across the South Coast with a light offshore both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Our next significant increase in swell is due on Tuesday afternoon and there's plenty of medium to possibly large sized S/SW groundswell on the cards into the middle to end of next week (albeit with S/SE winds).
This will be linked to the Long Wave Trough moving in from WA and stalling with strength across the Bight early next week, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.