Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:53
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 24th March)
Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday east of Melbourne, Thursday everywhere working around the winds, Friday everywhere, Saturday-Monday exposed breaks
A strong pulse of SW groundswell filled in Saturday but conditions were poor with a fresh to strong S/SW breeze.
Sunday was OK around Torquay but far from special with an early light W'ly wind and easing swell from 3ft or so. The Mornington Peninsula remained big and messy with fresh onshores.
Today a reinforcing SW groundswell filled in with early W/NW winds creating clean fun waves around Torquay, while the Mornington Peninsula was in the 4-6ft range and workable with a light variable wind. A weak S'ly change is expected to move through during the day as the swell persists.
This week (Mar 24 - 28)
The best waves will be found east of Melbourne through tomorrow and Wednesday as winds swing around to the East and strengthen. Swell wise, a similar sized pulse of SW groundswell to what we've seen today should keep wave heights up through tomorrow before easing into Wednesday. The Surf Coast will also see a low quality SE windswell on Wednesday from the strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait.
Thursday will see the last pulse of considerable groundswell until Tuesday/Wednesday next week as a strong upper level blocking pattern moves across the south of the country during this week.
The groundswell is currently being generated by a vigorous polar low that's south-southwest of WA, skirting around the southern flank of a strong high in the Bight, aiming a fetch of gale to sever-gale W/SW winds through our south-western swell window (pictured right).
A strong and inconsistent SW groundswell should result that's expected to arrive Wednesday evening and peak Thursday to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will be quite funky with a deepening inland surface trough across the state causing winds to swing from an early E/NE'ly around to the N/NW during the day ahead of a possible late change.
Friday should be clean again with a light variable wind and dropping swell, but we'll have to confirm this on Wednesday.
This weekend onwards (Mar 29 onwards)
The coming weekend and Monday next week will be best suited to exposed spots across the state as the swell bottoms out and winds blow generally from the north-eastern quadrant.
Our next significant increase in swell is due on Tuesday afternoon and there's plenty of medium sized SW groundswell on the cards into the middle to end of next week.
This will be linked to the Long Wave Trough moving in from WA and stalling with strength across the Bight early next week, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.
Thanks for the nice early forecast, always nice to be able to plan the working week.
What are your confidence levels like regard those Nor-east type winds later in the week?
Still a bit tricky depending on the movement and position of the trough (these are the hardest systems to forecast) but Thursday morning will have north in the wind, whether it be NE or N/NW is still a little unclear.
And then Friday looks more variable at this stage. By tonight/tomorrow we should have a clearer idea, I'll keep you posted though.
Thurs looks good but starting worry about the weekend....
Sarge, looking dicey tomorrow now, fresh E/SE winds across most of the coast, with maybe an E/NE'ly developing along the Mornington Peninsula, but I wouldn't count on it.
Weekend and Monday looking much better. Update coming soon.
Thanks . I've been watching and figured that's about where it was at. Like you have been saying these types of pattens seem very unpredictable. It been interesting to watch so closely. Wish I understood more off the science. Do know I'll be getting waves though!