Submitted by Craig on Fri, 03/21/2014 - 16:07
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st March)
Best Days: Monday morning at south swell magnets, dawn Wednesday at open beaches
Tiny surf persisted into yesterday, while today a new NE windswell is on the build and should of peaked around 2ft across north-east facing beaches during the middle of the day as winds swing offshore ahead of a strong change.
This weekend (Mar 22 -23)
The models are overcooking the size expected off this evening's S/SE change but with a stormy 3-4ft of swell expected across south facing beaches tomorrow morning instead of 5ft.
This will be related to a strong trough that's currently moving across the state, moving offshore and producing a persistent fetch of strong S/SE winds right off our coast this evening and tomorrow morning.
Winds will be poor in any case and strong but easing from the S'th.
The swell will drop steadily into the afternoon and Sunday morning leaving 1-2ft waves across open beaches under offshore W/NW winds.
Next week onwards (Mar 24 onwards)
There's been no change to Monday's very inconsistent long-range E/NE groundswell emanating from the Pacific Ocean and Cook Islands region. Tropical Cyclone Mike drifted south into a well established trade-flow a couple of days ago, with a long-lived fetch of gale to sever-gale E'ly winds being aimed on the edge of our swell window.
This swell should arrive later Sunday and peak in the very inconsistent 2ft+ range Monday with offshore W/SW winds. The swell should then ease slowly through Tuesday with a small S'ly groundswell not likely to make much of an impact across the coast.
Into the end of the week though, a better S'ly groundswell is due Thursday generated more favourably along the Polar Shelf during Monday and Tuesday next week. The size from this doesn't look to be too significant but should still offer 2ft to nearly 3ft sets at south swell magnets. Winds will be OK but not great and moderate from the N/NE.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards so try and squeeze a wave in early Sunday and Monday.
Craig, note my comment here;http://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/100566
Can you see what I'm talking about now? When I'm talking about? Yeah, not "alltime", but beggars can't be choosers.....