Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 21st March)
Best Days: Sunday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning
The surf was fun yesterday morning with a dropping swell and clean conditions under an offshore wind that persisted nearly all day.
Today the surf started out tiny and clean but a change has since moved through creating poor conditions. A new swell should also arrive later in the day but conditions will be terrible.
This weekend (Mar 22 - 23)
A good pulse of SW groundswell to 2-3ft is expected across Clifton tomorrow, generated by a good polar front during this week. Unfortunately today's change will linger into tomorrow creating poor conditions with a fresh but easing S/SW breeze.
The swell will be much smaller and easing from 1-2ft Sunday under more favourable offshore NW tending W/NW winds.
Next week onwards (Mar 24 onwards)
With the Long Wave Trough moving slowly across us and over towards New Zealand over the weekend and into next week, we'll see cold fronts steered favourably up through our swell window.
This should generate good pulses of SW groundswell through next week. The first is due Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning to 2-3ft across Clifton while a second slightly stronger pulse is due Thursday to 3ft or so.
The first pulse will be generated closer to our coast by back to back frontal systems firing up just under us, while a the second swell will be generated by a much stronger polar low moving ideally through our swell window early next week.
Winds on Monday afternoon as the swell kicks will be W/SW, but Tuesday morning should see morning NW winds that will then give way to SE sea breezes. Thursday looks excellent though with a light N/NW'ly during the morning.