Easterly Endurance
Notes from a swell that just kept on giving.
Easterly Endurance
Like ants that foretell a rain storm, the surfers knew what was coming and began acting differently.
Monday morning dawned with 6-8 foot lines out of the east-northeast and almost no wind at my local break. The surf wasn’t great, yet on any other day the takeoff spot would've been jammed by 7am. Instead, I surfed with a mere handful of people.
The same surfers who would otherwise be in the water stood up on the headland, watching, showing little interest in what appeared before them. They were assembled in groups planning tactical raids for later in the day, tomorrow, the day after, and even the day after that.
Rather than rushing out for a shred they acted like project managers calming planning the week ahead.
This was the story of the swell.
Water temperature aside, the conditions on the Gold Coast were more reminiscent of late summer.
Monday afternoon at Kirra. (Photo above by Andrew Shield, below by Josh Bystrom)
As a long time East Coast surfer the instinct to gorge on whatever swell you see becomes native. A south-west swell glancing the coast, a rapid southerly blast, an ECL tracking towards New Zealand, all that weather moving west to east across the continent, occasionally throwing something back as it speeds away from the coast. Jump now ‘cos it won’t be there tomorrow.
The exceptions of course, are South-East QLD and Northern NSW. Those regions are far enough north to escape the interminable west to east flow, so the weather patterns are more stable, longer lasting.
Yet over the past few years - it's hard to say exactly how long, but possibly since the La Nina three-peat - the characteristics of East Coast swells has changed. This was never more obvious than the past autumn when, at the end of the three-month swell bender, it emerged that not a single pure south swell struck the coast.
Instead they were all easterly quadrant swells, and the other thing they had in common was endurance - they weren't one-day wonders. The latest swell was a continuation of the same pattern.
Two days at a blue water tidal delta. The wave is not only exposed to swell but it's also exposed to wind. Light offshore necessary, slack winds preferred, a rare swell/wind combination in this part of the world, yet it happened on consecutive days this week.
This afternoon was as good as it gets," said photographer Josh Bystrom. "The swell pulsed while the wind dropped right out till it was plate glass."
Ben Williams arcing off the bottom of a wave that looks characteristically like a South Pacific reef pass instead of a sand bottom on mainland Australia (Josh Bystrom)
Billy Watson stretching out (Josh Bystrom)
Bede Durbidge wrapped up in blue (Andrew Shield)
So much of surfing is pattern recognition: making sense of a seemingly chaotic lineup, making sense of seemingly random weather.
Ian Goodwin is a surfer from Sydney's Avalon Beach and an Associate Professor in Climate and Coastal Risk. After fifty years spent studying East Coast weather he believes the tropics are expanding and, among other things, that means prevailing East Coast swells will shift counter-clockwise. They're now predominantly south but will shift more towards the east.
It's only a theory, a postulation, but it also matches a pattern that's slowly being recognised.
South swells may light up many East Coast ledges but there's also no shortage of east swell spots. Pedestrian beachbreaks that elevate themselves when the swell shifts counter-clockwise, towards the east, even further towards the north-east.
Wollongong's Dane Snelson harnessing serious beachbreak power on Tuesday morning.
And for those wondering, this is a paddle wave. (Steen Barnes)
"Low pressure development and east quadrant swells are not completely uncommon in winter," says Swellnet forecaster Steve Shearer.
"However, it's more common for these low pressure systems to form further south, off the NSW coast, with swells tending more south-east," adds Steve, echoing Ian Goodwin's big picture analysis.
Instead this system formed off the Queensland border and drove easterly swells onto the coast. By Tuesday the fruits of the slow-moving low pressure system were beginning to be felt from South-East Queensland to the Victorian border. A day later it'd even strike Tasmania's north-east coast.
By Tuesday morning a light south-west wind had brushed most of the coast, stripping out tinny treble while leaving only solid pulses of bass to slam the sandstone reefs.
Just after 10am, Tom Myers splits the pack at Queenscliff Bombora for another stunning wave. Click to read a full interview with Tom.
Still Tuesday but ten kilometres down the coast: Sydney's Eastern Beaches roar under a mix of front-loaded east swell and light south-west wind (Photos Bill Morris)
Meanwhile, a further ten kilometres south the playing field shifts from expansive open ocean reefs to the short and squat set-up that is Cape Solander. A sensible assesmment would say the energy was overhwhelming the reef but sensible doesn't come into it when the Cape is big and hollow.
Above, Harry Fisher on what's being considered one of the biggest waves ever ridden at the Cape - at least equal to the wave Richie Vaculik caught during the Red Bull Cape Fear contest in June 2016.
The outcome for Harry was similar to that of Richie: crushed by the Cape compression chamber (Dimas De Novais)
Cape veteran Kirk Flintoff runs out of rocker as the wave coils tightly beneath him (Dimas De Novais)
Far from perfect and yet absolutely mesmerising. Noa Deane runs the razor's edge on a grotesque Cape wave (Dimas De Novais)
Any system that delivers five days of waves is worth studying, and that's precisely what Steve Shearer has done. Attempting to make sense of its endurance, Steve notes the low pressure system wasn't typical. It was multi-centred, moved slowly, and created extended wind fields, all of which added to the prolonged nature of the swell.
"The other factor that appears to be having an influence," says Steve, "is the enhanced EAC [East Australian Current] supplying increased volumes of warmer water and offering extra potential energy for low pressure systems."
Whether these changes are cyclical or a canary in the climate change coal mine is a conversation for another time.
By Wednesday we were three day's deep into the swell and, in some regions at least, the best was yet to come.
On a coast that's lined with rocky ledges, Taj Air drops into sand bottom bliss.
Photographer Aaron Hughes swam for three hours, noting that on Wednesday afternoon it was the best he's seen the place in many, many years. He should know, he lives just 300m away (Aaron Hughes)
Not to be outdone, Sammy Lowe also swung on a few. Though the lineup counted a few old heads it was the two young goofyfoots who pushed deepest (Aaron Hughes)
See video footage of Sam from the same session.
On Thursday afternoon I drove into the carpark of the local - the same wave I surfed on Monday morning. Southerly winds had taken the edge off conditions, yet solid five foot sets still stacked up off the back.
The crowd was again minimal. Surfed out. Coming down off an extended adrenalin high. And for one friend who fractured a vertebrae at this very wave, staring down a long convalescence.
Local consensus was that planning paid off. Rather than an up-and-down peak we had a long plateau that allowed surfers to pick the eyes out of the swell, choose the best windows without compromising the work-life balance to any serious degree.
If only all East Coast swells were so accomodating.
Maybe they soon will be?
// STU NETTLE
Comments
I’d love to see a sequence of the Gong beachie wave. He get shacked after that bottom turn?
Also Sydney is basically Hawaii these days.. the joint pumps!
Been saying it for yonks. Crazy surf region right in a huge international city.
And you’re right in the thick of it Craigos, basically the Eddie Rothman of Sydney.
That's who put the signs up for " this is livin " ...
Lol
Ha.
big liney east ne swells suck balls around here just fuck the place.......petitioning for the return of se swells plz.
Waste of time here too.
Where you at sprout ?
Not being pedantic, the surfer pictured digging in that beautiful bottom turns name is Dane Snellson ( local underground humble charger)
Asking for a surfer to be correctly identified is pretty unrealistic, mate.
So how'd I go with the call it was going youtube.com be better than the last 2 big East Coast Low swells this year? Touch and go. Easter was pretty good. So too the earlier one in March. It's a tough one.
the wet signal accompanying these E'ly quadrant swells is also profound.
September is the driest month, with August close behind and characterised by dry W'ly winds.
Currently there are monsoonal showers, the ground is fully saturated and rain is forecast for days.
July 2019
Yeah I’m really sick of this rain tbh. I want our old winters back.
Same. This winter has been so wet. My memory is bad but I can't remember the wet lasting into August like it has.
Probably not a problem for south of Sydney but the water quality in northern NSW has been so bad for so long. Two sinus infections this year alone before I got more cautious (and surfed less than I would otherwise).
The ECC has not stopped running . Its August and SST off mid north coast is 23 degrees . We're in new territory people .
Craig , I have a question . Have you ever seen SST this high in August off the east coast ?
I have dug as deep as I could on SST archives . Nothing comes close . So I assume we will probably have these Lows forming more often and unfortunately rain in abundance close to the coast .
I'd suggest zooming out a little. Elevated SST's are a symptom of greater stress and anomaly half a world away. The pedants of the Pacific should be tuning into the manipulations of the Atlantic. Massive "strange" occurrences (read f*ckery) turn central US/Canada lows into long elongated troughs that set up unified and powerful high pressure outflows on their southern side that stretch the ENTIRE Atlantic. These result in pushing MASSIVE amounts of air and moisture through Centro America and across the Pacific. This in turn results in elevated Walker Circulation and La Nina that drive into the Coral Sea and "pull" the toughs, lows and depressions south in a viscous cycle which we're now seeing constantly and connected to these east swell events.
Interesting offshore.
The PDO is also gone the most negative it has for decades- so there remains that strong basin wide tendency for a more La Niña-esque pressure distribution.
Yes, facts.
I've been observing this scenario being done for years (I live in Toronto and the weather is laughable some times). I've now connected the dots on what this creates and means elsewhere simply through pattern recognition. Likely one of (if not) the largest "setups" I've seen is playing out right now so I'm not surprised the PDO is reflecting this. The Atlantic basin is now simply a high pressure spin cycle constantly "spinning up" the equatorial region in the way I described.
The PDO is the most negative (-4.00 sigma) in the 1950-2025 climatology and apparently at a "170 year low" if this is verifiable:
[img] https://imgur.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo-170-year-low-dwEBntU [/img]
https://imgur.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo-170-year-low-dwEBntU
Buckle up. This event is going to create some "interesting" outcomes.
The current rain event is impressive and behind it and on it's heals will be something for sure. Exactly what I couldn't tell you he wheels are in motion and the anomalous outcome merely a formality.
Yep the PDO is at record negative levels which is helping as Steve said keep driving the constant La Niña like state through the Pacific and regionally.
Ahh, I see you had the same images linked.
How much could we attribute to the Hunga-Tonga eruption?
Little to none as compared against the effects and impact of what I described.
@craig - Sure PDO is likely contributory or related. But the La Nina pattern is being "driven" predominantly by the observations and scenario I described (Atlantic).
Thanks Offshoreozzie ! I'm just an amatuer weather observer . You have a much broader knowledge of these climate drivers by the sounds of it .
I am blown away by the east coast current still sending warm water south thats all . One of the BOM forecasters stated that a cold front would sweep up the continent and when it reached the coast ,would soak up the warm moist air and form the Low that produced the last swell off the east coast .
I am certainly only an amateur and observer as well. You won't find anyone in the hallowed halls of this limited hangout forum taking me seriously or getting behind anything I observe and postulate lol.
I agree the SSTs and temps are absolutely contributory and currently anomalous but stand by my guns that the main driver of La Niña and increasingly common swings and variations from norm (as well as out of season and extreme weather events) are as described and connected.
Thanks OO for explaining what you are seeing. Down here (SC) I noticed 'spring in the air' approx 29 July; we are sunny, warmer than I remember winters, have hardly needed any firewood. Local maggies/currawongs/crested pidgeons are already nesting for some time now. We are seeing the NE/SE winds a little - but in the meantime frontal progressions are giving a nice variety of swell and changing wind conditions.
Has anyone done any studies describing what you are seeing?
Great waves on the Rock but also the skis season has been good through June/July but like VJ said above its like a switch has been turned on.
Was at Buller on Thursday and it looked like late September.
August is the new September in the Alps the last few years.
VJ, weather can be a trigger for some Aussie birds to breed, particularly inland, but the magpies, Currawongs etc are triggered for breeding by the increase in daylight hours following winter solstice.
Thanks Distracted, that's cool to know. By the daylight. Interesting. Can confirm small pidgeons on the way cos I've seen them at it in the yard. Such an amusing position, cue Blink 182's "What's my age again?"
Sea surface temp anomaly still sitting off the NSW South Coast at the moment which could be a trigger for more weather events when the next pool of cold air comes across.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC052.NSW.SSTAnomaly.shtml
Although the east coast weather at the moment is in an odd pattern, onshore south easterlies and showers in what should be the driest month. High pressure sitting out at sea as opposed to the big blocking highs that typically set up over the inland in winter.
Distracted , thats what I was alluding to above , ie: if you were 50 kilometers out to sea and jumped overboard , you would be in 22 degree warm water . I've looked back over BOM archives and cannot find anything close . This 'trend started about 6 'ish' years ago . However , I thought the east coast current was supposed to die down during winter. It has not stopped this year .
Anyway , I'm waiting to get shot down by someone for saying this . Cheers .
Great read and epic pics. Love these kinda articles. Stoked for all who scored.
Sick fun strike mission to Noosa this weekend. Not all time but really fun and better on Sunday, longer period and cleaner. Interestingly, water temp was freezing, all the crew were feeling it, had a 3/2 steamer which I thought would be too much, but it was just right
“Yet over the past few years - it's hard to say exactly how long, but possibly since the La Nina three-peat - the characteristics of East Coast swells has changed.”
I live close by one of those photos. Was here for 20+ years before seeing a big east nor east swell light up that spot.
Been two in 3 months now.
YouTube for last Wednesday showed what I was seeing at ‘bra. Haven’t seen a swell before where it was so constant. It was sets of big waves followed by sets of larger waves, there weren’t any lulls. Crazy energy. YouTube clips have 7 minutes of constant corduroy lines hitting The Pebble with one punter nearly getting pushed into the cliff face.
And that was just one day, 4 days after the initial hit.
Interesting that we’ve seen two lows in a very short time with multiple lows embedded within, previous one went into full Fujiwara effect, bouncing around.
Definitely feels different, and it’s 6 years since we had the driest of dry winters leading into the driest of Springs, and bushfires which started up Steve’s way in August/September, leading into one of our worst bushfire seasons on east coast. Gospers Mountain bushfires started in late 2019 and didn’t look like it was ever going to go out, and then the rains came in February 2020, and didn’t stop. Unbelievable rain, 3 years of it.
Even since the La Niña 3 peat it’s still been among the wettest years for Sydney. Getting very sick of the rain now. 5 plus years is enough. You forget how often and how long the dry spells can get, but we haven’t seen one in the 2020’s.
No, the wet signal has been so profound.
We're stuck in a time loop here, right back to autumn.
Wet, soggy, boggy, banks washed out by large swells and no longshore transport to regenerate them.
I'm struggling now to find an analogue season where we've switched from a typical winter pattern (W'ly winds, S quadrant swells) back to a full La Niña style pattern- in August.
So late in the winter season.
7 out of the last 7 days have rained and there's more to come- possibly much, much more if some of the long range scenarios play out.
Basically neutral ENSO conditions (may tend back to La Niña later this year) but SST's around East and Northern Australia remain at record high levels.
From BOM.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during July 2025 were +0.56 °C above the 1991–2020 average, the warmest July on record since observations began in 1900. SSTs since July 2024 have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with July 2025 the third warmest July on record.
The sea surface temperatures (SST) analysis for the week ending 3 August 2025 shows warmer than average waters are present across much of the northern Australian region including the Coral Sea, with cooler than average coastal waters off north-west Western Australia. Waters surrounding much of south-east and south-west Australia are also warmer than average.
Forecasts for the next 3 months show SSTs around Australia are likely to remain warmer than average to the north, east, and south-east, with waters near to slightly above average surrounding much of Western Australia.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The majority of international models assessed, including the Bureau’s, predict ENSO to persist in the neutral phase until at least December. However, several models indicate borderline La Niña conditions in spring and early summer.
Indian ocean dipoles (IOD) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ect..speculation at its best. Seasons are changing, no question. Pull in while the sun shines.
...and in 2 weeks from now, another monster east swell...
oh really - whowuddathunk it! ;0
Wettest August in Newcastle in 27 years…
"err arrr er ar".
.. An observation
...250811 1400EST
I just looked at the cams on Goldy/NSW ...
..have u noticed no one is surfing
,,yer I know it's not anything exciting ..but ..
there's no one out there !!..
I beginning to think that..
the "Bulls & the Nuns"
got together and hav est some sort of blockade
on the east cst of Oz ...
or is it part of this apparent "new phenonium"...F.O.S.
just plain old surfing too much ..
FOS ..."fckd out surfers".
. I might have to put that into the equation for the future
... ha ha..enjoy it lads... good articles as always...thxs
Another bucket for Monsieur, and perhaps a hose
?si=lSHFVM9KmEaI8VlVJust wondering if this might be related to the phenomenon that offshore ozzie is describing above, from a few months ago.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/pressure-disturbance-emerges-...
I remember reading of the long wave trough over the N Hemi becoming more meridional in years past, too. Could that be what is happening there, out of the winter season?
Also, just had a look at the 10HPa chart on Earth Nullschool, and northern hemi is in summer pattern, southern hemi has the winter polar vortex - but - theres a second vortex formed off over the eastern Australia/Coral sea region extending over the continent, and guess what it has a huge easterly flow over the area you guys are identifying these fetches for these big east coast swells...
The centre of the 2nd vortex sits off SW WA and it's calmness extends over the bight, probably explaining our current 'summer in Autumn'/'spring come early' weather down here.