Tropical South Pacific Storm Pre Australia Day
Whoops, sorry Steve, just see you've posted your forecast for today. Sounds like you're all for the system to develop, so does that mean you're leaning towards GFS as opposed to EC?
Hmmmm, latest EC model is starting to come on board with some tropical developments out there later this weekend and into early next week. Doesn't appear to have the intensity of the GFS system, but then that's got to be expected as nothing usually does have the same intensity of tropical systems in the long range GFS.
Very nice westwards propagation of the storm certainly looks the goods for swell production that's for sure.
The very scary part is that both EC and GFS have this same storm/cyclone predicted to cross the Qld coastline around Saturday/Sunday 29th/30th!!!
Been so interesting looking at the progression of each run from what I think is an EC based forecast I check.
Craig mentioned in his report that EC was the only one predicting the best case scenario, but damn if that won't produce a run of good swell for the entire east coast running for 3 or more days later next week.
Too far out to have any confidence, but there is always hope. :-)
Well TC Wilma is born, but I have to say that it's looking less and less likely she'll deliver any real quality with GFS being the outlier now.
Will Wilma has certainly turned WILD. Winds 115knts with gusts up to 140knts at her core....that's pretty damn impressive.
Gonna be a tough one to call how much swell we get from her and when it will arrive!!!
These systems have a tendency to underestimate swell periods and arrival times (due to the small spatial scale of the cyclone, and the coarse resolution of the model). Therefore, I'd add an extra 12-18 hour error margin on the arrival time. Won't be very consistent but could see some 5-6ft sets about the place IMO.
Sorry don't know if this is the right place.. but is it just my computer or is the QLD surf extended forecast not up yet? sometimes takes a few hrs after being posted but never this long, might just not be online yet?
I know this is a bit far out, and involving cyclones, hard to predict, but at least one of the models has a much larger cyclone possibly forming in the coral sea on top of a long fetch of easterly winds from a high from 4 to 5 days from now.
As well as a low on the coast bringing more rain to northern and central qld beforehand.
But the later one is progged to produce something mind boggling, with the possibility of a another bucketing for Brisbane. That is looking at around the 102 hour mark onwards, so still a fair way out there and what happens if it forms into a cyclone being unpredictable, but holey moley batman.
holy shit Batfink!! If it comes off anything like GFS is suggesting, its going to be a monster.
Lets see if the other models start to think the same in time.
EC is progging something similar with respect to the monster TC in the Coral Sea in a week's (or so) time, however it is slightly delaying the crossing of the Qld coastline and also has the crossing much much higher up the Qld coastline, compared with GFS.
ACCESS not even remotely interested. For what it's worth, here's my opinion.
It's a LONG way off in terms of model time and it's worth noting that with two tropical cyclones currently off the east coast of Australia, model stability in the medium-long term is questionable.
It should also be noted that both GFS, EC and even ACCESS were actually progging TC Wilma (in their long range runs last week) to actually come barrelling for the Qld coastline this week. Of course it now looks as though Wilma will do what all good TC's should...remain well off shore so that we get the swell (and quality swell) but not the winds/weather associated with them.
Stay tuned is all I can say.
Therefore, I'd add an extra 12-18 hour error margin on the arrival time.
By: "thermalben"
Thanks Ben, but wouldn't the travel time error be a function of how far off the coast the TC is and also it's core wind speeds (ie which dicates the swell period), hence not necessarily a blanket 12-18hrs difference.
That's effectively what I said Don. I just gave a ballpark 12-18 hours time range as that's what I'd allow for here in Sydney. Models have the swell in midday Saturday. I reckon it could arrive as early as late Friday.
Point Lookout buoy just registering forerunners from Wilma!!!
Unreal! Nothing at Byron yet, or any buoys to the south.
SE Qld buoys registering it now also. Would expect Byron to follow suit shortly if it hasn't already (haven't checked).
Showing at Byron Buoy now.
I note that GFS is progging a fairly decent tropical storm to brew out east of Fiji later this weekend and into early next week as it tracks southwards, compressing up against a high well to the east of New Zealand in the process. This would generate a good looking swell for the east coast around the weekend of 29th/30th January.
I note that EC is not really interested although ACCESS is trying.
Too early to have any real opinions?