Smaller this week with a nice swell for the weekend and offshore winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Western Australian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon November 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate SW swell Tues with light S’lies
  • Reinforcing pulse Wed with SE winds
  • Small but fun waves Thurs/Fri with offshore winds Thurs, tending more S’ly on Fri
  • Nice sized S/SW swell this weekend with offshore winds both days
  • Long range swells next week with offshore winds

Recap

Fridays pumping surf held in nicely through Sat with size to 5-6ft in the SW, 2ft in the North and offshore E-SE winds extending well into the day. Even Sun still showed 4-5ft sets between the Capes, 2ft in Mandurah/Perth with offshore winds tending S’ly. Today has eased right back with only a few 2-3ft waves in the SW, tiny/flat north of Busselton and offshore winds tending SW-W/SW as a weak front tips the state.

Still some beautiful waves around on Sun

This week and next week (Nov11 - Nov 22)

The weak front passes under the state tonight and high pressure starts to ridge in, moving into the Bight through Tues and Wed. 

That will see offshore winds develop, enhanced by a coastal trough moving southwards through Thurs. We’ll see that pattern break down late this week.

The Indian Ocean storm track remains relatively subdued with blocking high pressure suppressing the storms and producing mostly zonal fetches on the Eastern side of the Indian Ocean. 

A zonal fetch over the weekend looks to send a swell on target for size estimated on Fri with sets to 4-5ft in the SW, smaller 2ft in Perth/Mandurah. The front leaves a light S’ly flow, SE early across Perth so keep expectations low for quality.

By Wed we’ll see the ridging high produce a proper offshore morning with a reinforcing pulse to 5-6ft across the SW, 2-3ft in the North, easing a notch during the day.

Offshore winds continue into Thurs although they will trend more SE-S/SE as a new high ridges in a decaying front tracks NE towards the state. Thurs and Fri should hold residual 3-4ft surf across the SW of the state from rolling zonal fetches in the near WA swell window. By Fri we’ll see the decaying front tip the state and winds tend S’ly. 

Into the weekend and a fetch tracking NE towards WA related to the decaying front (see below) brings a nice pulse of S/SW swell for the weekend. Smaller than the one we just had but we should see some 3-5ft surf with 6ft sets across the SW, 2 occ. 3ft in the North. Winds look to be offshore E/SE-SE both days (more E’ly on Sun) as high pressure slips below the state and a coastal trough extends down through the SW land division.

Next week we should see a long range SW swell generated this week from a strong storm under Africa expected to generate seas in excess of 30ft through the middle of the week. That swell should fill in Tues and hold Wed in the 4-5ft range with bigger sets. Expect fresh offshores through this period, probably tending more NE on Tues as the coastal trough moves offshore.

Models are divergent next week with EC suggesting a quiet period with discontinuous and weak storms in the Indian Ocean while GFS has a more muscular pattern with a compact but strong gale force storm tracking past Heard Island mid next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it looks.