Severe 'bombing low' and onshore swells

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th June)

Best Days: Possibly Perth and Mandurah Thursday morning, early Friday Perth and Mandurah

Recap

Great waves the last few days on the coast with a good SW groundswell Saturday and clean 2-3ft waves around Mandurah, more 2ft in Perth and 6ft across the South West.

A new SW groundswell filled in through the afternoon keeping wave heights up into Sunday morning, and this morning the easing trend has been slowed by reinforcing energy with all day offshores.

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This week and weekend (Jun 5 - 10)

Currently to our west we've got deepening and developing low that will actual meet the requirements of a 'bombing low' during tomorrow, dropping over 24hPa in central surface pressure in 24 hours.

Unfortunately this won't mean a thing for us, and even other states as the structure won't be too great, and all we'll see is gale to severe-gale N winds ahead of a strong to gale-force W/SW change by 11am tomorrow, bringing severe weather and poor windswells.

Tomorrow will consist mostly of moderate to large stormy N/NW windswell (and no options when the W/SW change hits) while larger levels of W/SW swell are due Wednesday from the W/SW change, easing from 6-8ft+ in the South West, 3-4ft Mandurah and 3ft Perth but with strong W-W/NW winds.

The low will unfortunately stall and slowly weaken through Wednesday before moving off to the east later week and this will result in fresh onshore W/SW tending SW winds across the South West Thursday, possibly variable to the north (we'll review this Wednesday).

If winds are variable, we're looking at good easing sets from 2-3ft.

Into Friday a new S/SW groundswell is expected off the backside of the low, with a fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds expected to be generated in our southern swell window.

This will favour the Margaret River region over Mandurah and Perth with 6-8ft sets at dawn across south magnets, easing quickly through the day and down further from 3-4ft Saturday.

Mandurah should offer 2ft+ waves, with 2ft surf in Perth, mostly lingering mid-period W/SW swell.

Coming back to the expected winds and Margs will unfortunately still see W'ly breezes on Friday, increasing through the day with an approaching mid-latitude storm, while more variable breezes are likely to the north.

Over the weekend we're looking at onshore winds and building surf emanating from a strengthening storm projecting towards us Friday and Saturday.

Saturday looks poor and week with some stronger mid-period swell building Sunday ahead of a peak in groundswell Monday. This all looks to be with onshore winds, but size wise we're looking at 6-8ft waves in the South West, 2-3ft Perth and a bit smaller to the north.

Longer term it looks like we'll continue to see fronts pushing in from the west bringing swell but poor winds. More on this Wednesday.