Decent weekend in store for Margaret River

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 4th April)

Best DaysSat/Sun: good sized swell in Margs with early offshores. Only small across metro beaches. 

Recap: It’s been a dynamic period of waves in West Oz. Friday saw easing surf from Thursday’s initially large surf, however a new S/SW swell that built on Saturday and pushed well above expectations with solid 10ft+ bombs through the lineup. This swell then eased steadily from 4-6ft early Sunday morning, and since then we’ve seen wave heights bottom out yesterday and today, barely a weak 2-3ft. Due to the S/SW swell direction, Saturday’s swell didn’t register very well across the Mandurah and Perth coasts, so surf size has been small for quite some time there.

This week (April 5th - 7th)

Note: Forecaster Notes will be somewhat brief this week as Craig’s on leave.

We’ve had a steady progression of frontal systems through the Southern Indian Ocean over the last few days, and although they’re not overly strong and a large distance from the mainland, they are generating new swell that will build slowly over the coming days

Only modest increases are expected across exposed coasts on Wednesday, Thursday and early Friday - the main problem through this period will be a freshening S/SE airstream between an Indian Ocean high and a trough of low pressure across the West Oz south coast. 

Surf size should reach 4-5ft in Margs on Thursday and Friday though no major quality is expected. Friday morning is probably the best chance for a wave with winds likely to swing slightly more SE in the morning (all other days, and Friday afternoon, will see mainly S/SE winds). 

These swells won’t produce much surf across metro beaches, just 1-1.5ft across the Perth coast and 1-2ft in Mandurah through later Thursday and Friday. Expect fresh SE tending S/SE winds here too. 

This weekend (April 8th - 9th)

The final front in this series will kick up a better groundswell for the weekend, in fact there are several pulses expected between Friday night and Sunday.

This should deliver pulsey, somewhat inconsistent 5-6ft+ surf across the Margs region, and fortunately, the Indian Ocean high will ridge in from the west, providing light E’ly winds through both mornings ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Occasional bigger bombs are possible through Sunday owing to the fetch generating this swell working on the active sea state generated by the first fetch, responsible for the late Friday/Saturday energy. 

As per usual, this swell will be quite inconsistent owing to the large travel distance and also the slightly unconsolidated fetch setup. But there should be some pretty good waves on offer to finish the Margs Pro.

A little more size should reach the metro beaches this weekend and conditions will be good with mainly offshore winds here too. Perth should max out around 1-2ft and the Mandurah coast should see occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches. Again, expect even less consistency across the Perh beaches due to the longer travel distance and the refractive processes in and around Rottnest Island. 

Next week (April 10th onwards)

The Southern Indian Ocean storm track looks like it’ll be suppressed south of 50S for the longer term period such suggests an extended period of small to moderate swell activity across the Margs region and not much size across the metro regions. 

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 7:56am

Thoughts for competition?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 8:10am

It'll be run Saturday morning most likely. Sunday is a very good backup day though, likely bigger. But if they're looking at clean 6ft sets at Margs Sat AM it'll be difficult to hold back.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 8:33am

Actually will be very interesting to see what they do today. The expected new swell has kicked in with decent 4-5ft sets and winds are temporarily offshore, though expected to swing fresh S'ly within the next 2-3 hours (though there's no way to monitor this change; it'll just arrive unnanounced). Wonder if they'll decide to punch out a few while they can?

Also just looked at latest data and Sunday now looks to be the best day of the weekend with a more general offshore flow. Saturday will be light and variable, following a period of S'ly winds on Friday so may be a little lumpy and leftover first thing.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 8:53am

Sunday should be 10ft main break now the swell has upgraded in size during the last few days .
That Box could be very gnarly with a south swell on low/mid tides .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 8:55am

What measurement are you using Clam - 10ft on the face, or 10ft in surfers feet (which is 18-20ft on the face?).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 8:57am

You are right though, forecast has upgraded a little - was expecting 5-6ft+ Sunday now more like 6-8ft. And offshore. Let's hope they hold out until then!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 11:12am

Just did a forecast video update. Will do the general WA notes in a little while. Time for coffee!

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 2:21pm

Hey Ben that forecast of yours is pretty much what i mean too although the contest vibe from the commentators & promoters will call 10ft .i think the swell will be 3m@14sec and that will offer odd sets up to ten ft . The box solid 6ft and good death slabs .

This is swellnet forecast with much higher Metre age :
Quoted SN
5ft
ESE
10kt
4.1 m 14s210 (SSW)
6am
5-6ft
E
9kt
4.6 m 14.6s209 (SSW)
12pm
5-6ft
ESE
6kt
4.6 m 14.3s210 (SSW)
6pm
4-6ft
SSE
12kt
4.4 m 13.8s211 (SSW

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 6 Apr 2017 at 6:50pm

Rippa. Enjoying the video updates. So they ve got 10 (7 Mens 3 Chicks)heats run which would be around 5 hours of competition. Perhaps chicks tomorrow or sat and guys sun?