Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 6th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning Surf Coast, Friday morning, Sunday and Monday on the beaches, Tuesday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large SW groundswell for tomorrow with moderate W/NW tending fresh S/SW winds
• Reinforcing mod-large SW groundswell for Fri, peaking during the day, easing slowly Sat
• Variable winds ahead of weak sea breezes Fri
• E/NE-NE tending SE winds Sat
• Small-mod sized SW groundswell Sun AM, easing with NE tending SE winds
• Less consistent, small-mod sized W/SW groundswell Mon AM with N/NE tending NE winds
• Easing surf Tue with N/NE winds

Recap

Yesterday started on the small side, but a new, long-range W/SW groundswell arrived through the morning, building to a good 3ft across the Surf Coast through the day under offshore winds, while conditions deteriorated to the east as the swell increased.

This swell is holding this morning (though slower) and conditions are clean again though a SW change is expected through the day.

This week and weekend (Aug 5 - 10)

This afternoon’s change will be linked to a strong but weakening frontal progression moving in from the west, with it firing up to the south-west of Western Australia earlier this week.

A small increase in windswell is likely later today, but tomorrow should reveal a stronger groundswell generated by fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds during the earlier stages of the progression.

The Surf Coast should come in at 4-5ft across the exposed breaks with 6ft+ sets to the east and we’ve got an improvement in the wind situation with a moderate, morning W/NW breeze now expected before shifting S/SW during the day and freshening as a trough moves through.

Into Friday, our reinforcing SW groundswell that was slated for Saturday now looks to come in a little earlier, with the secondary frontal progression linked to it being a bit stronger and faster moving. This is currently passing under the country with a great, broad fetch of W/WN to W/SW gales.

This should provide similar sized waves to tomorrow, coming in at 4-5ft through the day on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east before easing slowly into Saturday from 4ft and 6ft respectively.

Local conditions on Friday look a bit more favourable with variable winds due during the morning ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes, E/NE-NE on Saturday morning ahead of weak SE sea breezes.

Size wise the exposed beaches will be a little too big still on Saturday with Sunday coming in at a more manageable size under a morning NE breeze, shifting SE later afternoon. 

In saying that, a new pulse of W/SW groundswell due Sunday will be right on the edge of the size that the exposed beaches can handle, generated by a pre-frontal fetch of NW gales at the head of a stronger low pushing across the Heard Island region over the coming days.

The Surf Coast only looks to come in at 2ft to occasionally 3ft with 4-5ft sets to the east.

Come Monday, the less consistent but similar sized, long-range swell from the low proper is expected in the morning, with it coming from a similar more westerly direction. This will likely see the Surf Coast around the 2ft+ range, 4ft+ to the east.

Local winds look great for the beaches and N/NE tending NE with easing surf and N/NE winds through Tuesday.

For the rest of the week there’s nothing major on the cards so make the most of the coming swell and more favourable winds.