Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd March)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow mid-late morning onwards, Sunday morning, later afternoon Monday Surf Coast, Surf Coast Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized mix of easing SW swell and new, stronger period S/SW swell tomorrow with improving conditions
• Gusty but easing E/SE tending E/NE and then NE winds during tomorrow morning ahead of late SE sea breezes
• Easing surf Sun with light N/NW tending W/NW winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Small, inconsistent SW groundswell building later Mon, mixed with W/SW windswell
• Strengthening NW tending W/NW winds Mon
• Mod-large mid-period swells building Tue with strong NW tending WSW winds
• Large mid-period swell Wed with strong W/NW tending later W/SW winds
• Similar winds Thu with slowly easing size, smaller Fri with NW tending SW winds

Recap

The mid-period SW swell energy came up early yesterday with consistent 4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east, under light offshore winds before a strengthening SW'ly kicked in through the day.

Today conditions are poor across all locations with similar levels of mid-period swell energy and nothing to really recommend.

This weekend and next week (Mar 4 - 10)

The weekend is looking much better for a surf across all locations, though the main issue tomorrow will be the size across the exposed beaches.

A trough will deepen as a high slides under us, with winds due to improve rapidly through the morning. Pre-dawn and strong E/SE winds will ease and tend E/NE and then NE through the morning, tending variable early to mid afternoon ahead of late sea breezes.

Swell wise, the current mid-period energy will start to ease but a reinforcing pulse of S/SW groundswell energy is due to stop this easing trend, arriving through the morning and holding into the afternoon. This was generated by a good fetch of SW gales on the backside of the progression generating the current swell.

Sets to 4-6ft are due on the Mornington Peninsula with surf to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast (4ft magnets), and the morning high tide will provide decent options to the east before bottoming out in the afternoon.

Sunday now looks best to the west with a light N/NW offshore, shifting W/NW through the morning before S/SE sea breezes kick in. It'll be doable to the east for the keen with easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets (mostly 2-3ft elsewhere) and 4ft+ to the east.

A temporary low point in swell is due Monday morning ahead of a small, reinforcing pulse of SW swell energy into the late afternoon. This will be generated by a weak low that's currently south of Western Australia, at polar latitudes, with small 2ft waves in the morning due to build to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.

Also in the mix will be some weak, building W/SW swell as a mid-latitude low pushes in and across us, bringing strengthening NW tending W/NW winds.

This low will be the first ahead of a stronger cold outbreak pushing in from the west. A slow moving gyre of activity will project various fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds through our western, then southern swell windows, producing moderate to large levels of mid-period swell from Tuesday through Thursday.

Due to the stalling and slow moving nature of the gyre and constant frontal activity, winds are due to be favourable for protected spots with strong NW tending W/SW winds on Tuesday, W/NW tending W/SW later Wednesday and Thursday.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build from 3-4ft Tuesday morning to 4-5ft+ into the afternoon with 6ft surf on Wednesday, larger and messier to the east.

Conditions will remain favourable Thursday and Friday mornings to the west as we see a slow drop in size, with the weekend likely to S'ly winds as the gyre weakens and pushes east, followed by high pressure.

So all in all we've got a good looking period for the state, best on the beaches tomorrow for the experienced. Have a great weekend!