Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday November 18th)

Best Days: This morning, tomorrow on the beaches (best in the morning), Monday and Tuesday (until mid-afternoon) protected spots, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning Surf Coast, beaches next Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized SW groundswell for today with gusty SE sea breezes into the PM
• Reinforcing, inconsistent SW swell for Sat AM, easing with strengthening NE tending N/NE winds
• Small fading swell Sun with strong W/NW winds (late increase in W windswell)
• Mod-large mid-period W/SW swell building Mon with strong W/NW tending W winds, peaking overnight and easing Tue from a SW direction
• Strong W/NW winds Tue, tending SW mid-PM
• Easing SW swell Wed with W/NW tending SW winds
• Fun, reinforcing S/SW swell Thu with N/NW tending S/SW winds, easing Fri with strengthening N/NE winds

Recap

Easing surf with persistent, poor onshore wind and conditions across all regions yesterday. This morning we’ve finally got cleaner and smoother conditions across all locations, though a bit lumpy on the Surf Coast.

Our first pulse of SW groundswell has come in nicely with a lift to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets to the east. Gusty sea SE sea breezes are due into the afternoon so surf before then.

A new swell with improving conditions this AM

This weekend and next week (Nov 19 - 25)

Tomorrow will be the pick of the weekend before things bottom out swell wise on Sunday ahead of a sizey, windy swell episode early next week.

Looking at tomorrow first and a reinforcing pulse of slightly weaker SW swell energy is due to peak in the morning, easing into the afternoon and then fading on Sunday.

The source was the backside of a strong but slightly average structured polar low that formed to the south-west of Western Australia early this week. The pre-frontal NW fetch generated today’s size, while post-frontal and less favourably aligned but persistent SW winds will generate tomorrow morning’s size.

We should see the Surf Coast maintaining 3ft sets with inconsistent 4ft to occasionally 5ft waves waves to the east, easing through the day and then down from 1-2ft and 2-3ft respectively on Sunday.

Winds will strengthen tomorrow ahead of a strong, approaching cold outbreak, with a fresh and gusty morning NE’ly, due to become stronger and shift more N/NE. This will create tricky conditions so for the least amount of wind, go the early.

Into Sunday the cold outbreak will start moving across us, bringing strong W/NW winds that will persist all day. There might be a late increase in localised W/SW swell on Sunday but not to enough size to worry about.

Now, looking at the progression as a whole, and as expected it’s changed a little with the swell now due to come mostly from the west initially, with a south-west component as it starts to ease.

Instead of a tight, strong low forming south-west of us in the wake of Sunday’s change, we’re now due to see the initial front moving in from the Bight doing most of the heavy lifting, generating a fetch of strong, slow moving W/SW winds.

This will limit the expected size a little but bring cleaner conditions with the front being more zonal, with the backside of the progression due to see more favourable SW winds through our south-western swell window for Tuesday.

Size wise, a moderate to large, mid-period W/SW swell is on the cards for Monday and Tuesday, building through the former, peaking into the evening and easing Tuesday.

The Surf Coast is expected to build from 3-4ft early to 4-6ft into the late afternoon/evening with building, stormy 8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday should see a bit more organisation and power to the energy with easing sets from a similar 4-6ft on the Surf Coast magnets through the morning, 6-8ft to the east.

Winds will be strong and out of the W/NW-NW on Monday morning, shifting W through the day, favouring protected spots with Tuesday seeing strong W/NW winds until early afternoon ahead of a W/SW-SW change mid-afternoon.

Looking at the rest of the week and we’ll see easing mid-period SW energy on Wednesday with an early-mid morning W/NW breeze, while cleaner conditions are due on Thursday morning with a NW breeze, better on the beaches Friday with a N/NE offshore.

We should see a small polar storm generating some reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell for Thursday, keeping sets around 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to possibly 5ft to the east, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!