Easing surf as winds slowly improve on the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th November)

Best Days: Sunday morning exposed beaches, early Tuesday keen surfers Surf Coast, Friday and Saturday week on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Slowly easing SW swell energy over the weekend with moderate S/SE winds tomorrow, lighter from late AM
  • Smaller, fading surf Sun with strong N/NE winds
  • Tiny Mon AM with early N/NW tending NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change late AM
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell building later Mon, peaking Tue with strong SW winds (likely W'ly early Surf Coast)
  • Moderate sized windswell come mid-period S/SW swell building Tue, peaking Wed with fresh S/SW-SW winds
  • Easing surf Thu with moderate S tending S/SE winds
  • New mid-period SW swell Fri with N/NE tending SE winds

Recap

A little slow yesterday morning but our new mix of S/SW swells pulsed into the late morning and afternoon as winds improved across the Surf Coast but deteriorated to the east. An abating N'ly offered cleaner waves on the Surf Coast reefs with surf to 3ft, while strengthening winds to the east added increasing bumps as the swell built to 4-5ft.

This morning we've got a peak in energy with inconsistent but straight 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets (3ft most spots) and 4-6ft sets to the east. A brief period of light wind created clean conditions on the Surf Coast and Phillip Island but a trough has since brought an onshore change which is due to freshen into the afternoon.

After a whole week of great waves on the exposed beaches, it's a little sad seeing it come to an end, but most would have had their fill.

Good sized surf yesterday PM

This weekend and next week (Nov 12 - 18)

The weekend looks a bit mixed, with today's mix of inconsistent groundswell and mid-period SW energy due to ease this afternoon, dropping further through tomorrow and Sunday. The easing trend will be slowed slightly by a small, reinforcing mid-period swell tomorrow.

The trough linked to today's change will linger tomorrow with moderate S/SE winds due into tomorrow morning, easing a touch during the day and into the afternoon.

Easing sets from 2-3ft are due on the Surf Coast with 4ft surf to the east.

Come Sunday we'll see winds shift back to the N/NE and with strength as a mid-latitude low drifting south-east, to our west brushes past us. Winds are now expected to hold most of the day from this direction, favouring the beaches but they'll be small and easing from 2-3ft. The Surf Coast looks small to tiny and fading from 1-2ft.

Moving into next week, we're expected to fall under the back side of the mid-latitude low and a new moderate sized, mid-period SW swell should build into the late afternoon ahead of a peak Tuesday.

The low will also draw up a polar front come low through Tuesday and as expected, EC forecast it most accurately with a moderate sized, localised S/SW swell due into Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday but with poor S/SW-SW winds from the backside of the low.

Firstly coming back to the mid-period swell and this is being generated by a healthy polar front that's to the east of the Heard Island region, with a fetch of strong W'ly winds due to push east, weakening under Tassie tomorrow evening.

This should produce a fun 3ft+ of swell for Tuesday, but a pulse to 2-3ft is likely on dark Monday along with an early N/NW wind ahead of a strong SW change late morning. This will kill the swell as it builds while also kicking up a weak increase in windswell.

Now, the polar front come low will project strong to sub-gale-force S'ly winds up through our S'ly swell window Monday evening and Tuesday, producing a moderate sized S/SW swell for later Tuesday but more so Wednesday.

At this stage Tuesday will consist of the mid-period SW energy and building windswell with sets to 3-4ft due into the afternoon but with strong SW winds. There's a chance for an early W'ly on the Surf Coast but we'll confirm this Monday. Winds look more S/SW-SW on Wednesday with 4ft surf out of the S/SW, easing Thursday as winds shift more S-S/SE.

Longer term a poorly structured but strong polar low will fire up to the south-west of Western Australia early next week, generating some small new mid-period SW swell for next Friday but more so Saturday as winds improve for the beaches. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!

Comments

plops's picture
plops's picture
plops Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 12:12pm

Miami Drive was possibly the spookiest place in Australia this week

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 6:15pm

Gotta love a hyped up bank to keep the crowds away. Some amazing waves going down on the MP this week with next to no one out there to surf them thanks to all the wanta be's and insta knobs all surfing the one spot.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 6:22pm

first time in 3 years the HOAXCOAST has deliverd a proper run of swell finbob....????

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 6:31pm

Bring back the chest highties, I'm done.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 7:26pm

Haha win!

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Saturday, 12 Nov 2022 at 5:51pm

Next week’s weather has to be the most bonkers on record.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Sunday, 13 Nov 2022 at 5:33pm

Super fun swell direction today at a usually fat long boarding wave.

Waves were almost wedging up and then staying close to the reef rather than pushing wide like it normally does.

Plus hardly any crew on it too. Stoked.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Sunday, 13 Nov 2022 at 7:31pm

Has to be one of the cleanest Easterly swells in ages! So fun!!

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Sunday, 13 Nov 2022 at 8:50pm

Yeah cant think of the last time there was an offshore with this swell direction.
30 minutes of glass at midday was epic.