Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 10th October)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, later afternoon into the evening tomorrow exposed beaches, Wednesday morning exposed beaches, Sunday morning Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading swell into tomorrow AM
• New, fun S/SW swell arriving later tomorrow PM, peaking overnight, easing Wed
• Mod-fresh N/NE-NE tending variable winds tomorrow, strengthening N/NE Wed
• Swell bottoming out Thu with weak S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Building W windswell Fri with strengthening N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Building mid-period W/SW swell Sat PM with NW tending SW winds, peaking Sun AM with S/SW-SW winds (likely W/NW early on the Surf Coast)

Recap

Poor surf on Saturday with no real size in the morning when conditions were clean on the Surf Coast, building into the later afternoon but with onshore winds.

Yesterday was much better on the Surf Coast with a period of clean conditions and mix of new W/SW and S/SW swells to 3ft on the magnets, bumpy and average to the east.

Today there are more options with light, local offshore winds but smaller, fading surf from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east.

Full options this AM

This week and weekend (Oct 11 - 16)

The coming week isn't overly special swell wise but there should be some fun options on the exposed beaches later tomorrow and Wednesday morning.

The lack of swell will be thanks to a broad, slow moving mid-latitude forming south of Western Australia, pushing slowly east before stalling south of the Bight mid week. This will prevent any significant Southern Ocean frontal systems forming through our swell windows while also sitting too far north to bring any westerly swell at all for our region.

It will bring favourable winds though, moderate to fresh N/NE-NE tomorrow, becoming variable later afternoon and into the evening and then strengthening N/NE on Wednesday.

Swell wise, a healthy polar low should produce a fun pulse of S/SW swell for the exposed beaches later tomorrow, peaking overnight and easing Wednesday morning. A fetch of strong W/SW winds were and are still being generated south-southwest of Tasmania around the low, with bursts of stronger gales in the mix.

Ahead of the swell tomorrow the Surf Coast looks tiny and to 1-1.5ft with 2ft sets to the east, with the new swell building to 2-3ft and 4ft respectively later in the day. Wednesday morning should ease from a similar size (3-4ft to the east) but get in early before it drops.

There isn't expected to be much swell left into Thursday and a trough will bring a shallow S/SW tending S/SE change, a lay day.

Come Friday the low will start edging in across us, bringing strengthening N/NW tending W/NW winds along with a building, weak W/SW windswell. No major size is due with a 2ft wave due into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, windy and poor to 4ft to the east but this will be the precursor to a flurry of stronger storm activity.

The models diverge a little on the strength and timing but behind the slow moving mid-latitude low we're due to see a stronger front/low pushing in on the weekend, bringing a new moderate sized W/SW swell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. NW tending SW winds are expected on the former with average conditions as the swell builds, likely cleaner Sunday morning with a light W/NW offshore on the Surf Coast but lingering S/SW-SW winds to the east. The Surf Coast should reach 3-4ft with 6ft sets to the east at the peak of the swell.

Patchier frontal systems look to follow up the weekend's front, bringing further moderate sized pulses of swell next week along with winds out of the north-western quadrant. More on this in the coming updates.