Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th September)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, Monday morning protected spots, early Tuesday protected spots, Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell today, peaking in the PM with fresh N/NE winds, tending variable into the PM
• Weak SW windswell building tomorrow with strong SW winds (possibly W'ly early Surf Coast)
• Easing windswell Sun with gusty W/NW winds ahead of a late, strong SW change
• Large S/SW groundswell filling in Mon, peaking into the PM with gusty W/NW tending strong SW winds mid-late AM
• Large, easing S/SW groundswell Tue with mod-fresh S/SW tending weaker S winds (W/NW early on the Surf Coast)
• Easing mid-period S/SW swell Wed with NE winds
• Poor, stormy S/SE windswell later next week

Recap

Slightly wind affected but improving conditions on the Mornington Peninsula yesterday with infrequent 2ft sets, cleaner and better across Phillip Island with a tiny mix of swells on the Surf Coast.

Today there's a touch more energy in the water with infrequent 2-3ft sets across the exposed beaches to the east and 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets. Conditions should remain clean and favourable all day on the beaches.

Super fun surf this AM

This weekend and next week (Sep 10 - 16)

Make the most of the good waves on the beaches today as we're looking at a poor weekend of surf thanks to a couple of fronts clipping us.

Firstly tomorrow's will be the remnants of a mid-latitude low moving in from the west, bringing the cloud and rain the past couple of days.

Tomorrow we'll fall under the backside of the low with a strong SW change due to move through during the morning. We may see a period of W'ly winds early on the Surf Coast but there'll be no size.

Into the afternoon a small pulse of SW windswell should develop but only to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.

This swell will ease Sunday from 2ft on the Surf Coast as winds shift back to the W/NW ahead of the next system. They'll be gusty ahead of a late W/SW change as the low pushes east.

Now, on Wednesday I pointed out that we'll likely see a downgrade in this swell generating low as we near closer to its formation as the American global forecasting model GFS seemed to be overcooking the strength and intensity as it often does.

Well I jinxed it and the European version EC has come into line with GFS and we're set to see quite a significant low forming south-west of us early tomorrow morning. This low is forecast to project a fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds through our swell window before shifting slowly east on the weekend, passing under Tasmania on Sunday evening.

The slow movement of the low will result in a large S/SW groundswell which is due to fill in Monday and peak into the afternoon, remaining large Tuesday morning owing to a final intensification of S/SW severe-gales in our southern swell window Sunday evening.

The Surf Coast should build to 6-8ft with 8ft+ sets to the east on Monday and there looks to be a window of early W/NW winds on the Surf Coast before shifting strong SW mid-late morning.

Easing sets from 6ft are due on Tuesday across the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east along with abating moderate to fresh S/SW winds. Again there's likely to be a period of morning W/NW winds on the Surf Coast, favouring protected spots.

Wednesday looks the pick of the beaches as winds relax and swing NE through the morning along with easing levels of S/SW swell from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.

Longer term we've got a low point in swell due Thursday ahead of a deepening mid-latitude low moving in later week, kicking up a junky, onshore S/SE windswell. Therefore before this hits make the most of the coming period of waves. Have a great weekend!