Good week of waves with plenty of options

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 26th July)

Best Days: Today, Tuesday, Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday, Friday on the beaches, Saturday, Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing, inconsistent W/SW groundswell tomorrow with strengthening N/NW tending N winds
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Wed AM with strong NW tending W/NW winds
  • Mix of W/SW swells filling in Thu, biggest into the PM with fresh NW winds, weakening into the PM
  • Easing W/SW groundswell Fri and Sat with strong N/NE-N winds Fri, N/NW tending NW Sat

Recap

The weekend and today have played out pretty much to script, with our run of inconsistent, mid-period SW swell from Thursday and Friday, holding into Saturday with clean, 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, bumpy and workable to the east.

The new mix of mid-period W/SW swells for yesterday came in as expected, and under model forecasts with surf mostly to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast with the odd 5ft set, larger and choppy to the east. The lack of size was due to the bulk of the swell generating fetch being aimed into South Australia, blocked by Cape Otway.

Today, we've got less consistent though stronger 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-6ft to the east with a reinforcing W/SW groundswell, but this will ease during the day as winds hold from the NW.

This week and next week (Jul 27 – Aug 1)

With the weekend's tricky westerly swells now on the decline, we look to the next run of tricky westerly swells, but the activity moving through mid-late week will be slightly better aligned and aimed for the Surf Coast overall.

Firstly tomorrow will see a further drop in today’s inconsistent W/SW groundswell, with a reinforcing swell not due until later in the day. It looks like the Surf Coast will ease back to 2-3ft with 4ft to possibly 5ft sets to the east, dropping a little more through the day.

Winds will strengthen and blow out of the N'th most of the day, with a slight N/NW tendency through the early-mid morning.

This will favour the beaches, but conditions will be tricky with the winds.

Into Wednesday morning, an inconsistent new W/SW groundswell is due, generated by pre-frontal W/NW gales moving in south-west of Western Australia over the weekend.

It'll be a little slow but the Surf Coast should continue to see 3ft sets on the swell magnets, 4-5ft+ to the east as winds remain strong from the NW, tending W/NW into the afternoon.

This shift in winds will be as the vigorous mid-latitude frontal progression mentioned earlier moves in. This progression will start south-west of WA tomorrow, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds initially generated in our western swell window, weakening to gale-force while moving into towards us, and also swinging more W in direction.

The close-range gales will generate a moderate sized, mid-period W'ly swell for Thursday morning with the stronger W/SW groundswell moving in later in the afternoon, peaking overnight and easing Friday.

Size wise we're looking at surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets (likely a touch under sized in the morning), 6-8ft to the east along with fresh NW winds, easing into the afternoon. Friday will be best on the beaches with a fresh to strong N/NE-N wind and easing sets from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, smaller Saturday morning.

Longer term, another significant but more distant and less favourable aligned polar low firing up towards Western Australia will generate an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon and Monday, possibly mixed in with some closer-range, mid-period W/SW swell. Winds look generally N/NW-NW, but we'll have a closer look at this and what's in store for the start of August in Wednesday's update.

Comments

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 1:31pm

Police been doing heaps of licence checks down GOR

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 3:45pm
The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 5:01am

I heard we don't pay fines like that

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 3:03pm

Yes, there were some full carparks down the GOR on the weekend, especially Saturday. Must have been a fair few escaping lockdown. Not hard to see why with the good surf around. What was it like around Torquay/ Bells area?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 6:21pm

Yep Friday also. Protip: put a 'Torquay Tigers' sticker over that Melbourne surf shop sticker on your car

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 3:15pm

Packed.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 4:03pm

Will they or won’t they 25km it?..

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 4:23pm

for the ski industries sake I bloody hope not. With the strict restrictions that will (reportably) still be in place can't see the 25km limit making any difference to risk

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 4:51pm

Agreed common sense should dictate but when has that been the case previously ?!

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 5:00pm

Be wild if they try to claim lockdown is ending but still include a travel limit. Wouldn't put it past them though. The more travel limits in place the more negative impact to many people's ability to make a living from their business, especially the regions.

Whatever the update, it'll be some restrictions easing, not lockdown ending.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 5:14pm

Something something “expert health advice”

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 11:11am

Looks like it's good - just been told 5km limit gone, 5 reasons gone, no exercise time limit. Well done Melbourne, to those who stuck to the rules. They must be confident cases can be controlled.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 7:42pm

Water felt like it warmed up a fair bit tonight don’t know if it’s the mix of sandy river water coming out or just the relative feeling compared to last few days

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 10:20am

Fuck me it's pumping down the GOR today and no cunt humans around. Just enough north in the wind for the beaches

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 11:11am

It is very nice.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 11:34am

enjoy it while you can, I can hear boards in the city being waxed as we speak

Fireblade's picture
Fireblade's picture
Fireblade Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 2:50pm

Waxed, locked and loaded...

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 11:58am

I made the most of it last year. Been enjoying walks along the surf beach after a 50km drive this year. It's just nice watching the waves with no people around. Gotta love it

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 12:22pm

An unexpectedly wholesome response. Enjoy poo man

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 6:55pm

I'm from the MP will winkle pops be good on thursday?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 7:09pm

Not as good as Tiber St's gunna be.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 7:35pm

I won’t come spit the winkle if you don’t come to T Street, the most sacred of lands.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 7:57pm

Deal Boner.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 9:00pm

The hole coast will be lit up finbob the terror. The swell direction is far from perfect but it will fill in with somewhat inconsistency and the tide is the wrong way around when it should have the most push in swell. There won't be that many out if it's 5-6ft due to sweep and %65 of the rest don't like the thought of getting creamed on the way out.