Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 7th July)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow exposed breaks

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW swell tomorrow with local offshore tending NE winds
• Small S/SW swell Fri with local offshore morning winds ahead of weak sea breezes
• Small, inconsistent W'ly groundswell building Mon, easing Tue with strong N-N/NW winds
• Possible increase in swell activity from next Fri into the weekend

Recap

Small, slow 2ft waves on the Surf Coast for the keen yesterday, poor to the east, though workable on Phillip Island.

Today a new, mid-period S/SW swell has filled in with slightly inconsistent though fun 3ft sets on the Surf Coast (bigger magnets) with clean conditions, fairly decent to the east and around 4ft. Conditions should remain clean all day with winds tending variable NE to the east.

This week and next (Jul 8 - 16)

Make the most of the current S/SW swell as it'll ease into this afternoon and tomorrow, with small, weak surf due to pad out the rest of the week.

Tomorrow looks to ease back from a slow 2ft on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft to the east, smaller Friday with a reinforcing S/SW likely not to top 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2ft to the east.

Conditions will be favourable with local offshore winds tomorrow, tending NE into the afternoon, similar Friday though with weak afternoon sea breezes.

Unfortunately the weekend and most of next week doesn't look much better at all.

The reason for this is a broad low sitting south of Western Australia, with embedded fronts spinning around it, though too north of our swell window. This low is blocking anything coming from the Southern Ocean while generating no meaningful swell for us, which equals a slow forecast period.

Winds look generally favourable for exposed locations besides Saturday, with a light SW tending variable breeze due, back to the N/NE on Sunday.

An inconsistent pulse of W/SW groundswell on the cards for Monday/Tuesday now looks unlikely to provide much in the way of size at all, with the front linked to this now forecast to track too far north and poorly through our western swell window.

The Mornington Peninsula may see small sets Monday afternoon and Tuesday but only to an infrequent 2ft to possibly 3ft, but with strong N tending N/NW winds on Monday, N/NW tending N on Tuesday.

The next noticeable increase in swell is due late in the week when we should see the mid-latitude storm activity pushing further east and into us, possibly followed by a stronger frontal progression. Until then keep an eye on the updates for the potential for some more significant swell into the middle to end of the month.