Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 1st)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow, Thursday morning selected spots, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of swells on the weekend, best Sat on the beaches, possible small window mid-late morn Sun
• Poor conditions early-mid next week
• Large SW groundswell Thu with E winds, possibly NE Fri

Recap

Happy New Year! Average to poor conditions on the coast yesterday with fresh onshore breezes and a mix of building windswell and inconsistent long-range groundswell.

Today conditions are clean on the beaches with a mix of SE windswell and SW swell to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.

This weekend and next week (Jan 2 - 8)

The groundswell seen in the mix with the SE windswell yesterday and today will ease tomorrow, with the windswell energy due to persist as the swell generating winds remain strong through Bass Strait. They'll switch between E'ly in the mornings and E/SE into the afternoons resulting in an easing trend in energy through the morning, building back again later and into the evening.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should persist around 3ft tomorrow, if not for the odd bigger one early, similar on the Mornington Peninsula, back more so to 2-3ft on Sunday.

Conditions tomorrow are looking really fun for the beaches most of the day with an E/NE offshore, persisting into the early afternoon ahead of a late swing to the SE.

Sunday's now looking dicey with moderate to fresh SE winds due all day, with a slight chance of more variable winds mid-late morning east of Melbourne.

Make the most of these windows of cleaner conditions as come Monday, we'll see winds strengthen from the S/SE as a high moves in from the west, squeezing the surface trough sitting to our north. This will kick up the SE windswell again through the day, likely reaching 4ft+ on the Surf Coast.

Also in the mix will be our new mid-period SW swell, but the localised windswell will be the more dominant of the two.

There'll be no improvement Tuesday as the trough drifts south-east, swinging winds from a moderate to fresh S/SE'ly to the S/SW.

Another mid-period SW swell is due to build into the afternoon, produced by a continuation of polar frontal activity developing east of the Heard Island region, with sets to 3ft due on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, holding Wednesday but with persistent S'ly winds.

Of greater importance is a polar low developing in the same region as the polar frontal activity, with a significant fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds forecast to be projected east through our swell window. The low, on top of an active sea state will produce a large SW groundswell for later Wednesday but more so Thursday.

Size wise we're looking at strong 5-6ft sets across the Surf Coast, 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds aren't great but do look better with a trough to our north swinging then around to the E Thursday morning, strong and SE into the afternoon, possibly NE Friday morning as the swell eases. We'll have a closer look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend!