Craig

Easing swells, windy building weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st April)

Best Days: Beaches from later morning tomorrow, Friday, Sunday and Monday protected spots

Recap

Good to great waves across selected breaks yesterday with a mix of new mid-period W/SW swell in the early morning and larger, stronger long-period SW groundswell filling in through the day, kicking to 5ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds tended variable into the afternoon.

Today the swell has eased slightly but conditions are good across most locations with 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east.

This week and weekend (Apr 2 – 5)

Looking at the coming days and as pointed out in Monday's notes, there's plenty of reinforcing swell on the cards for tomorrow and Friday, backing off into Saturday morning.

This afternoon a new W/SW groundswell is due across the coast, produced by a good fetch of W'ly gales under WA at the start of the week, while weaker W/SW-SW fetches trailing this will keep the coast active through Friday.

Size wise the Surf Coast should see 3ft+ waves tomorrow, easing slowly from 3ft Friday morning with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow, easing from 4-5ft Friday morning.

Unfortunately tomorrow conditions aren't looking too flash with a morning SE breeze, easing and tending N/NE later morning ahead of sea breezes. So if looking for a surf later morning to early afternoon looks to be the pick.

Friday is much better as we see persistent and freshening N'ly winds kick in, likely N/NW all day on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east.

Moving into the weekend and we look at the intense mid-latitude low that's forecast to move in from the west, with it deepening as a quick moving node of the Long Wave Trough brings an upper cold pool across the south of the country.

It's now looking to be a mix of a strong low and follow up frontal system, with it being positioned more favourably for swell production across our coast but without as much wind as forecast on Monday.

The low will form in the Bight on Thursday evening, with a burst of unfavourably aligned fetch of SW gales generated on the edge of our western swell window early Friday, followed by a better aligned fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds.

Any swell from these developments isn't due until very late Saturday, with the rest of the day being small and only 1-2ft or so on the Surf Coast with strong NW tending W/NW winds. The models also diverge on the strength and positioning of this first burst with EC looking bigger and better than GFS.

The swell is likely to peak Sunday morning to 3-4ft or so on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east, while a secondary projection of the low and a front in and across us during the day will bring more size into the afternoon and Monday morning.

It's hard to put a size on this with the model divergence but expect surf in the 6ft range on the Surf Coast, 8ft+ to the east.

Locally winds on Sunday will be strong but from the N/NW, shifting W/NW through the day and then W/NW early Monday before shifting S/SW.

We'll have to go over the expected sizes, local winds and timing of the swells again Friday so check back then.

Comments

where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 12:16pm

Just remember, you can get out to exercise but not drive half way across the state to clog a line up. You will be told to leave. Come back when all this is over.

Derp

spidersmith33's picture
spidersmith33's picture
spidersmith33 commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 3:32pm

You can go out to exercise, and if your favoured form of exercise is surfing, and you have to drive to do it, then I would remind anyone tempted to play the role of police to mind their own business.
Spider

where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 12:23am

Mate, I’m from a lot further away than the Surf Coast. This will be enforced and the coppers are reportedly aware of an impending swell and they are ready to act. Try your luck and you may not ever be welcome back. I travel a lot, I’m a good local and an even better tourist, but these are not times for stupidity masked as bravado.

Derp

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 8:35am

where was...
Generally speaking, like it or not, unfortunately the rules are: You can jump in the car for any of the 4 approved reasons to leave the house - refer to DHHS website - no reference to postcodes, distance travelled etc etc.
This will no doubt, will result in some of the normal flow of surfers going to the breaks they would normally surf on the MP or SC - not trying to start a massive debate about it though, just being realistic. (hopefully everyone is adopting social distancing accordingly and sharing a much loved resource accordingly)
In saying that, I agree it would be very hard to argue a visit your way is above board - if its where i am thinking. It would be a clear example of larger communities visiting a smaller vulnerable community and potentially placing it at a higher risk.
I'm looking forward to my annual visit, once this is over though - if / when the conditions permit.
If i stay away now, will I be allowed to catch one off the point, next time i'm in town?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 1:01pm

"Try your luck and you may not ever be welcome back."

That's a good oxymoron! Portland locals being 'welcoming' at any time.....specially at B.P.......

Other than that...I fully agree. Hang in your own postcode until this shit is over or nobody's gunna be surfing.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 2:57pm

Almost fresh West. Yay. I was praying for that seabreeze. Classic

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 3:35pm

Yep, little trough moved through.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 4:37pm

And wont fuck off. Done a bit of damage all ready. Just need that swell to stay lined up. New board fever and this happens.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 4:39pm

Yeah still nice and lined up.

Heath1973's picture
Heath1973's picture
Heath1973 commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 9:32pm

Recreational fishing has just been ban in Victoria, Play it smart with the surf this weekend people or we'll all be out of action.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 6:40pm

Hot tip, nobody will play smart and we will be out of action by Monday morning

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 10:13pm

And that's why where-was-MP is smack bang on the money. If everyone who isn't local drives to the surf coast for what looks like good waves this weekend, there is every chance the beaches will be closed for surfing on Monday.

The Stage 3 lockdown is for essentials only, and it's pretty clear that doesn't include driving outside your postcode for waves.

I heard that one quite well-known identity was at the bottom of the Bells steps last week asking where people were from and suggesting that those who weren't local might reconsider their need to be on the surf coast.

It's a hard one, with people like Spidersmith not making it any easier. Should anyone be allowed to surf? I think yes, as long as people maintain the necessary distance. That's what all the advice so far is saying.

But should people be travelling for exercise and/or surfing? Any non-essential travel at the moment is pretty well illegal - the DHHS says "Victorians are being told not to travel unless absolutely necessary." All the guidance says you can do what you need to do, including exercise, but the overwhelming message is stay local.

Bass Coast have had similar issues and have publicly tried to clarify what it means for surfing in the Sentinel paper:
"(The Bass Coast Council spokesman) said surfers must not congregate as they usually do. Must keep their “social distance” and he stressed, “don’t pick up your mates to go surfing with you – go on your own or they will close it down!” "
https://sgst.com.au/2020/03/not-at-stage-3-yet-but-beach-rules-apply/

It doesn't seem right to be encouraging people to travel outside their local area at all while the current situation continues. With by far the highest concentrations of Covid-19 cases in Melbourne and Geelong, it seems especially galling that some crew think its OK to travel for waves and potentially spread the virus.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 7:36am

Lovely colours this morning, at Torquay (top) and Lorne (bottom).

Alessandro Sica's picture
Alessandro Sica's picture
Alessandro Sica commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 9:48am

As much as I would like to go surfing and be smart about reading between the lines of government advice...I have accepted it is not the right time at the moment. On the bright side, one less person on the lineup!

Kellya's picture
Kellya's picture
Kellya commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 10:02am

In a small state like Vicco are there recognizable ‘regions’? Sounds like it’s getting outta control over there. A wise step could be to shut down travel between regions like here in WA.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 10:39am

Absolutely, once you are out of the city the shires are essentially regions. Splits up the surf areas nicely- Surf Coast, MP, Bass, Otway etc

Kellya's picture
Kellya's picture
Kellya commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 11:35am

Any talk of the government stopping movement between regions or would it be too hard? The Margs locals over here must be pumped that the Easter hordes from the metro won't be ruining their Autumn.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 3:38pm

Nah don’t think so. Lots more ways in and out of our regions compared to WA

Holds's picture
Holds's picture
Holds commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 10:36am

‘Locals’ are rubbing their hands together having an excuse to get possessive over the premier breaks

Holds's picture
Holds's picture
Holds commented Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 10:49pm

Hahaha this is perfect