Craig

The light is growing brighter

UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF

COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st January)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Sunday, Monday afternoon, Tuesday, Wednesday late morning Surf Coast, Thursday and Friday mornings Surf Coast

Recap

A continuation of poor surf with a slowly mix of easing groundswell and windswell yesterday and today, not bad condition wise on the Surf Coast yesterday afternoon and early this morning.

This weekend and next week (Feb 22 – 28)

Moving into the weekend, and tomorrow will remain average to poor with the swell dropping further in size as winds linger onshore out of the S/SE-SE. Try the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula for bumpy 3ft +waves, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and poor.

The offshore wind and cleaner conditions for Sunday are still on track with a light N/NE'ly, tending variable early afternoon ahead of a S'ly sea breeze.

We'll be looking at a mix of background swells only to 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast and hopefully hanging around 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day.

Looking at next week and we've got a lot more swell activity on the cards, firstly in the form of an inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell mixed in with some mid-period energy on Monday and Tuesday,

A strong but distant polar low generated the long-period energy mid-week, with the remnants of this low now generating a broad fetch of strong W/SW winds while continuing slowly east, well south of WA today, weakening further over the weekend.

This will produce some more consistent mid-period energy in between the long-period sets, with both filling in Monday and peaking into the afternoon.

We should see the Surf Coast building to 3-4ft into the afternoon, though inconsistent, with 5-6ft+ sets to the east, easing slowly Tuesday from 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively.

Winds are still looking onshore but workable with a light to moderate S/SE'ly Monday, not really increasing in strength through the day. So the afternoon should hopefully offer some decent waves for those with lower expectations.

Tuesday looks good on the beaches with an E/NE-NE breeze holding until early afternoon and then going variable ahead of mid-late afternoon sea breezes and then late SW change.

Come Wednesday morning a W/NW offshore should create clean conditions on the Surf Coast but the swell will be at a low point and back to 2ft or so ahead of a strong SW change and increase in new swell through the afternoon.

As touched on in Wednesday's notes, a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough will move in from the west next week, bringing with it a flurry of polar frontal activity.

The first will swing in from south-west of WA on Monday and generate a pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW wind, followed by post-frontal strong SW winds as it projects up and into us Tuesday and Wednesday. This is then expected to be followed by a strengthening front, generating a fetch of SW gales on top the active sea state created before it.

What we should see is a building mid-period W/SW swell on Wednesday ahead of SW energy on Thursday, easing ahead of a stronger SW groundswell pulse Friday.

Size wise the Surf Coast at this stage looks to come in around the 4ft range on the sets Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, 6ft+ to the east and likely bigger Friday (EC shows a much stronger back up swell).

Winds as discussed above will go onshore Wednesday as the swell builds. Back to the W/NW on Thursday ahead of the secondary front and possibly W/NW again Friday morning. We'll have a closer look at the outlook for mid-late next week on Monday though. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 21 Feb 2020 at 9:43am

Oh yeh, now that's what I'm talkin bout!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 21 Feb 2020 at 11:09am

There Is A Light That Never Goes Out

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Friday, 21 Feb 2020 at 8:00pm

Or if it’s crowded bigmouth strikes again?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 10:18am

Some Crowds Are Bigger Than Others

hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro commented Friday, 21 Feb 2020 at 5:56pm

Directional perfection.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 12:02am

Good news at last. What about Westernport ? Would Tuesday or Friday be the better day for Westernport surfing?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 10:25pm

No such thing as a good day surfing westernport. Just head to bells

Veiny's picture
Veiny's picture
Veiny commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 7:30am

Dunno why you all been whining so much. its been fun and uncrowded lately

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 7:58am

yep so good! beats surfing lorne point with 20 other log's

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 9:28am

"Dunno why you all been whining so much. its been fun and uncrowded lately."
Fun? The last 2 months has been the surfing equivalent of skiing bulletproof man-made snow on green runs at Mt Buller. It's sort of fun, but it's hardly charging double black diamonds with 40cm of fresh.
We need some surf pow now.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Saturday, 22 Feb 2020 at 9:48am

Just got back from Jan Juc. (dog walking not surfing) The 'fun, uncrowded' conditions continue......

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 4:39pm

Good to see the forecast shifting back to howling easterlies down the track. Don't want too many days of swell and favourable winds....

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 6:32pm

I'm coming down this week to hassle and snake all the locals with all my Sydney over-froth. I look forward to meeting and burning you all!

Billie

kidkaos's picture
kidkaos's picture
kidkaos commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 9:21pm

Billie.
Don't be a hero.
Don't be fool with your life!

kidkaos

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 9:58pm

You could show your snake to Gary, he might like it

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 9:14pm

Gotta love a Flurry.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 24 Feb 2020 at 9:33am

Good to see the first of the swells coming in nicely today!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 24 Feb 2020 at 12:11pm

Yep, some reasonably solid sets at 13th, nice to see the ocean with some straight underling groundswell again.