Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th November)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning keen surfers, exposed beaches keen surfers Wednesday morning, Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday mornings, Monday

Recap

Great waves continued on the Surf Coast on the weekend, with the biggest increase in mid-period SW swell coming in a little above expectations and to 4-6ft on the magnets with favourable conditions most of the day.

Winds were only favourable for a short period yesterday morning before swinging onshore with a little less size, smaller again today as the mid-period swell eases but with cleaner conditions across all locations. Winds look as if they'll go S/SE early afternoon so try and surf now east of Melbourne.

This week and weekend (Nov 19 - 24)

The weekend's swell will continue to drop into tomorrow, but a mid-period reinforcing SW swell is due to fill in, keeping small waves hitting both coasts through the day, easing Wednesday.

This has been generated by a broad but unfavourably aligned fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds slipping south-west of us last night.

2ft+ sets should be seen on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east though winds aren't too favourable. An early light W-W/NW breeze is due on the Surf Coast, SW elsewhere and swinging more S/SW through the day while increasing a touch in strength.

Wednesday will become cleaner on the exposed beaches with a NE offshore, but size wise it'll be minimal. Fading 1ft to maybe 2ft sets are expected on the Surf Coast, 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Get in early as the afternoon will be smaller and with sea breezes.

Thursday will be poor with a low point in swell energy along with strong N/NE winds, blowing out any tiny swell. A strong SW change is due into the afternoon but no major swell is expected behind this change, with onshore S/SW to S/SE winds Friday.

The forecast deepening of a mid-latitude front directly south-west of us late week looks to now occur under Tasmania, with no swell really due until a secondary better frontal system moves in under the country later week and into the weekend.

This broad and multi-staged frontal progression will start to the south-west of WA, with a great fetch of strong W/SW winds, with a few embedded gales forecast to move slowly east through our western swell window. The progression will weaken slightly Thursday evening before a secondary front fires up on its tail, projecting an additional fetch of slow moving W/SW winds towards us Friday and Saturday.

A moderate sized and prolonged W/SW swell event is expected, building Saturday and peaking Sunday before easing slowly from Monday.

Size wise we should see the Surf Coast reaching an easy 4ft (likely bigger) from late Saturday but more so Sunday, and 6ft+ to the east. Winds will favour the Surf Coast with a W/NW tending S/SW breeze on Saturday, W/NW early Sunday ahead of a weak S/SE change mid-morning. Monday again looks like the best day to the east with a variable E/NE-NE wind and moderate sized easing swell. We'll confirm this on Wednesday though.

Longer term there's plenty more activity on the cards for the end of next week, but more on this Wednesday.