Craig

Negative SAM continues to influence outlook

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th November)

Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow afternoon, protected spots Wednesday, Surf Coast Thursday, Friday, early Saturday, Sunday morning

Recap

Plenty of surf for the weekend with a mix of mid-period W/SW and SW swells between 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, larger but a mess to the east. Protected spots offered OK waves for the keen each morning west of Melbourne, but today is the pick with clean conditions across both coasts as the mid-period SW swell eases from 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.

Winds should play nice all day to the east, N/NE into the evening as the swell continues to drop.

This week and weekend (Nov 12 - 17)

Our new groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, with an upgrade in size, but winds aren't looking too flash, with Wednesday the pick.

The swell direction is looking more SW than S/SW now initially, with a strong low forming south of WA yesterday, generating a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds while tracking east last night.

The low is currently weakening south-west of us but will maintain its strength with a fetch of SW gales forecast in our southern swell window tomorrow before it continues pushing east across Tassie. A moderate to large, long-period SW groundswell is expected off this low, building rapidly tomorrow and reaching 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Unfortunately conditions look poor all day with a fresh to strong SW-W/SW breeze and no real early offshore around Torquay.

Wednesday looks better with a morning W/NW offshore and mix of easing S/SW groundswell and mid-period swell from the front moving through, easing from a similar 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. Winds look to hold out of the W most of the day as well as another weak front pushes in from the west-southwest.

This and a flurry of further frontal activity into the end of the week will see moderate levels of mid-period W/SW swell continuing across the state right into the weekend with winds from the western quadrant.

Surf to 3ft+ is due to continue on the Surf Coast Thursday (3-4ft in the morning) and Friday, 5-6ft to the east with NW tending W/NW winds both days (W/SW later in the day Friday).

The most size is likely on Saturday with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets, a consistent 6ft to the east but a dawn W/NW wind will shift onshore mid-morning. Sunday looks nice and clean again as the mid-period energy easing with a morning W/NW breeze.

All this swell and westerly winds are linked to a strong negative Southern Annular Mode, which we've been discussing the past few months here.

Looking to the east, next Monday may be the only chance to surf the beaches again, with a possible N-NE'ly, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:26pm

Ok. So does the West Coast influence our “Northerly”? South channel has it recording North all fucking day yet time and time again the wind kicks so the surface gets chopped up, ribs through the wave? Checked it this morning - clean and North. Checking it now - bumpy and North.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:26pm

Couldnt count the number of times this happens.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:33pm

It'll swing back later, hi-res models had it flirting more NNW and then back NNE later.

And probably not re West Coast.. as you guys got the N'ly this morning when it's been NW-N/NW all day over there. Kinda steering more from the north.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:38pm

Im willing to put a tenna on this

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:42pm

What, late swing in winds NNE? On!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:48pm

No NNE. Stays this bumpy North

Is my bet

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:51pm

Portsea cam doesnt have replay yet?

Would be easy to gauge that way also

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:53pm

Get a photo.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 3:53pm

Ah you're on, will clean up ;)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 4:08pm
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 4:26pm
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 5:03pm

Ey ey ey. Thats the offshore cam. You looking with the wind. Check sorra. Still fucked. This is way more fun than Melbourne cup

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 6:04pm

Wonder if we could get Sportsbet to make a market on this?

Is it a microclimate feature caused by the geography?

alexz's picture
alexz's picture
alexz commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 6:06pm

I know what Nick is saying Craig. There are a few things that can result in what Nick is saying.

1. South Channel Island wind observations from the bay aren't always reflective of what is happening on the back beaches. It can be reading north but a sea breeze can be present on the ocean side of the peninsula.

2. Related to point 1, there can be topographic effects. The wind flow off the Dandenongs and Dividing Range on cool mornings can provide a northerly flow to the South Channel Island automatic weather station, while a downslope wind from the Otways can lead to a NW wind flow and bump on the back beaches.

3. A straight and strong northerly wind can still put bumps in the wave face on the peninsula due to a tendency for wind swell to be defected slightly to the left of the prevailing wind direction in the Southern Hemisphere. This is much like Ben Matson's NSW southerly swells from westerly winds exiting Bass Strait. This is probably what you are seeing today Nick. To reinforce, this deflection to the left observation, I also notice that when there is a strong S/SE wind you get lots of windswell on the bay, originating from near Safety Beach, which should really only happen if the wind was easterly.

That's my 2 cents...

A.Z.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 7:27pm

I agree with your first point. I also under stand that there is 22.5 degrees either way of North that a recording can’t separate. Your second is my leading theory though, without any evidence, that the West Coast winds overpower the North wind here creating that distinct bump. Aireys Inlet has been averaging 25 knots NW all over, same with Geelong.

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 5:09pm

Just surfed a left at the other end to Portsea. Bumpy ribs up the face

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 5:17pm

Yep winds not good now but will improve later :)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 7:28pm

Bank deets Craigo - NNE haha

Ill email ya

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 8:59pm

Haha save it for the next bet! I know what ya mean though. Those winds over west are probably adding little windswell bumps to the mix as well even those winds locally OK. I agree with Alex’s points as well. 

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 7:30pm

But in regards to comments above, looking at the cameras, it hardly looks like it’s been Northerly all day.

I am the bone

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 8:45pm

I thought it common knowledge. North. Hit Portsea. North east, hit the middle bit,
Tending more east, hit the south end..

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 8:44am

If it wasn’t common knowledge it is now

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 9:54am

D'oh!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:41pm

hahahahaha! oh dear

Kellya's picture
Kellya's picture
Kellya commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 10:16pm

Always thought Hamish and Andy’s ‘Weatherbet’ idea was genius.....

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 2:53pm

The swell really started to kick-in strongly around lunchtime today at Juc, there'd be some fun go-road point action this arvo.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 2:56pm

Nice, easy 4ft?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:23pm

4-5ft on the sets, with powerful straight lines under the surface chop, very winteresk looking as are the synoptic charts for the next week or more.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:25pm

Awesome!

Heath1973's picture
Heath1973's picture
Heath1973 commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:14pm

Craig, how we looking for the early tomorrow on the Surf Coast, size and wind-wise, any change?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:10pm

Nope and nope, on track.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:14pm

So there has to be irony this shit weather is linked to a ‘warming’ event.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 3:19pm

Well yes, it disrupts the polar vortex (PV) which results in fluctuations of the PV, in this case further north than normal.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 9:16pm

Reduced size of ozone hole correlates with fronts further north, more negative SAM
Ozone hole disrupted by SSW

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 7:39am

Ah yes gotta read about that, Ian Goodwin mentioned this to me as well when he was preparing the original SSW article.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 7:45am

Morning Craig, it kind of makes sense too, when you think about 30 to 50 years of increasing ozone hole size and the fronts getting further and further south - with results of less rainfall for SW WA, and SE Oz - and tendency for more +ve SAM more often. So if the Ozone hole patches itself up, or if it gets disrupted like this, then you get an 'old school' winter down here. In November this time, lol.

Cam looks good this morning, maybe 3-5ft at a guess with a westerly aspect to the wind, but there's work to do so maybe later or tomorrow for me.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 8:25am

Morning, I'd be very cautious in drawing those conclussions, you'd need a lot more data and analysis to be done.