Negative SAM continues to influence outlook
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th November)
Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow afternoon, protected spots Wednesday, Surf Coast Thursday, Friday, early Saturday, Sunday morning
Plenty of surf for the weekend with a mix of mid-period W/SW and SW swells between 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, larger but a mess to the east. Protected spots offered OK waves for the keen each morning west of Melbourne, but today is the pick with clean conditions across both coasts as the mid-period SW swell eases from 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.
Winds should play nice all day to the east, N/NE into the evening as the swell continues to drop.
This week and weekend (Nov 12 - 17)
Our new groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, with an upgrade in size, but winds aren't looking too flash, with Wednesday the pick.
The swell direction is looking more SW than S/SW now initially, with a strong low forming south of WA yesterday, generating a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds while tracking east last night.
The low is currently weakening south-west of us but will maintain its strength with a fetch of SW gales forecast in our southern swell window tomorrow before it continues pushing east across Tassie. A moderate to large, long-period SW groundswell is expected off this low, building rapidly tomorrow and reaching 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Unfortunately conditions look poor all day with a fresh to strong SW-W/SW breeze and no real early offshore around Torquay.
Wednesday looks better with a morning W/NW offshore and mix of easing S/SW groundswell and mid-period swell from the front moving through, easing from a similar 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. Winds look to hold out of the W most of the day as well as another weak front pushes in from the west-southwest.
This and a flurry of further frontal activity into the end of the week will see moderate levels of mid-period W/SW swell continuing across the state right into the weekend with winds from the western quadrant.
Surf to 3ft+ is due to continue on the Surf Coast Thursday (3-4ft in the morning) and Friday, 5-6ft to the east with NW tending W/NW winds both days (W/SW later in the day Friday).
The most size is likely on Saturday with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets, a consistent 6ft to the east but a dawn W/NW wind will shift onshore mid-morning. Sunday looks nice and clean again as the mid-period energy easing with a morning W/NW breeze.
Looking to the east, next Monday may be the only chance to surf the beaches again, with a possible N-NE'ly, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.