Craig

Good long-period swells this week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 9th September)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday morning, Friday Surf Coast

Recap

Bumpy though OK waves for keen surfers on the Surf Coast early Saturday much better Sunday with a mix of swells around the 3ft range and cleaner conditions. Locations to the east stayed poor all weekend.

Today a strong front moving through has kicked up a messy and onshore mid-period S/SW swell.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Sep 10 - 15)

The frontal system linked to today's messy and onshore conditions will move off to the east, with a drop in mid-period S/SW swell through tomorrow. There'll also be a very inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell generated in the southern Indian Ocean last week, with inconsistent sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets most of the day, 4-5ft to the east.

A morning W/NW breeze will favour the Surf Coast, shifting SW-S/SW late morning.

Looking at our stronger, long-period SW groundswell for Wednesday, and the low linked to this swell is currently south of WA, generating a tight fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds in our south-western swell window (picked up well by satellite as shown).

The low will maintain a severe-gale fetch while tracking east before passing under Tasmania tomorrow morning out of our swell window.

The swell is due to arrive Wednesday morning and peak through the day to a strong and good 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east under N/NW tending N winds on the Surf Coast and N/NW tending N/NE breezes to the east.

A secondary tight low forming in a similar position to where the current low is, will generate another fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds through our swell window, but dip more east-southeast.

The low will be a touch bigger in scope likely resulting in similar sized waves to Wednesday's swell. The groundswell is due to arrive early Thursday morning and peak through the day to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to maybe 8ft to the east.

Winds will be favourable during the morning again with a N/NW offshore (possibly N/NE early east of Melbourne), giving into a mid-afternoon SW change.

A weak front linked to Thursday's change will produce an smaller mid-period SW swell for Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as the SW groundswell eases.

Sets to 3-4ft should persist Friday on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east with a W/NW breeze, possible variable into the afternoon.

The models still diverge on a possible strong cold front moving through Friday afternoon, bringing a moderate sized increase in groundswell for Saturday. ECMF has the front weaker and swell also smaller and weaker (more idea come Wednesday), while behind this it looks like we'll see storms dipping east-southeast through our swell window, blocked by a strong high, and the models converge on this.

This looks to result in fun swells early-mid next week but with winds from the south-eastern quadrant. More on this and the weekend's outlook on Wednesday though.

Comments

viccokook's picture
viccokook's picture
viccokook commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 5:37pm

Craigos. What size do you think the dawn session might give us Wednesday? Will the swell be here by then? Don't want to pull the early and get skunked

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 5:46pm

Yep, it should be in there by 6/7am, maybe a touch undersized at first light..

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 6:35pm

Craig, you're giving away your forecast for free again with a very obvious headline, and it's going to have a big effect on crowds.
I'm out of the water all week, but feel sorry for the regulars when the likes of Viccokook arrive en-mass at 6/7am.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:09pm

I.E these notes and comment, what difference is between a weekday and weekend crowd ?

P.s the little thing below your comment how about “angry when online, but smiley in the brine” i dunno :)

I am the bone

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:38pm

"what difference is between a weekday and weekend crowd ?"
Weekdays are generally manageable. At the place I surf the most, you'll typically get half a dozen regulars waiting patiently for the sets, never paddling inside each other, and burning anyone who doesn't wait their turn. That's how it has to be.
Weekends are typically a shit fight with non regulars playing all sorts of silly games like snaking, paddling down the point and stopping just before the main pack of regulars, paddling out the channel and thinking the very next set is their wave, and surfing in teams. Then there's the kooks who don't look left, can't duck dive, and are generally a danger to themselves and others in the water. Good surf forecasts just increase the numbers of flappers.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Kellya's picture
Kellya's picture
Kellya commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:40pm

Yeah, nah.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:46pm

How’s the title give anything away? No location, day, winds, nothing.. just said there’s good swells inbound.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:55pm

not exactly hard to find a wind forecast / tide times and connect the dots. Your comment gave an exact time and day when the swell was due. Keeping that information behind the paywall is good for business and good for crowds.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 8:00pm

It's a guesstimate, and as you said most know there's a new swell on the way. I don't think I'm giving much away if old mate is aiming the early and the swell is due around that time. If the swell was due more midday and I said, go from 1pm it's a little different as this is when people won't have as much flexibility and it's quieter..

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 8:58am

"A great week of surf with good swells and favourable winds."
Is your fist line (that is clearly visible) a guesstimate too?
Like I said, you are giving away a product you are charging subscribers for.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

rishwil's picture
rishwil's picture
rishwil commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 9:59am

Sold out..

Line_up

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 10:53pm

Vic local
I really wonder sometimes what you are banging on about and why you really bother.
Craig's comment about time/day was behind the paywall and the title/summary that is not behind it only says good swells this week.

Vic local, besides you knowing everything already, why do you keep paying your subscription to swellnet and posting so much on it? You seem at odds with what paid swellnet is - a premium user pay service that offers detailed forcast info to members.

That's why I pay, and keep paying, as it is a great surf forecasting service. If Craig gives out detailed forcast info in response to paying members questions he is only doing his job. Members are happy, swellnet is happy and life goes on for those members who choose to stay.
Which is why I don't get you. Why are you a member and why do you post so much if you at odds with what swellnet is? You seems like you see yourself as a bit of a vigilanty that people should or want to listen to. Unfortunately, from the outside you come across as an aggressive or unhappy person who needs to find a more positive outlet for their energy.
Probably time to move on Vic local (for your and everyone else's sake).

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 9:06am

"why do you keep paying your subscription to swellnet and posting so much on it?"
I don't pay for a subscription because I live two minutes walk from the beach and physically check it nearly everyday.
I also have no problem with the paywall or people who pay for the information. I do have a problem with Swellnet hyping up swells which increases the crowds. When a forecast of "good swell all week with favourable winds" is clearly visible to non-subscribers, it makes no sense what-so-ever for their bottom line or the customers who pay for the information. My question to you is why do you keep paying your subscription to Swellnet when the crucial info is given away free of charge.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 9:13am

Can you please point out the specific "hype"?

If anything, "good swell all week with favourable winds" is downplaying things. It looks sensational today (though, if this discussion continues any further, the only break that'll be any good will be Strei Sands).

And a whole week's worth of "good swell with favourable winds" is hardly directing people to specific breaks at specific, narrow windows of opportunity. The headline is merely a broad summary of the forecast period.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 10:31am

Actually I didn't quote you guys correctly. Sorry it should have read "A great week of surf with good swells and favourable winds." Like I said, hype.

" is hardly directing people to specific breaks at specific, narrow windows of opportunity. " What a massive cop out that is.

With forecasts like "A great week of surf" appearing on forecast sites like Swellnet, we see a 40-50% increase in crowds. When you miss a swell (and we get great waves) numbers a way down.

If you guys are going to hype it up, have the decency to put it behind the paywall for the locals' and your paying customer's sake

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 9:32am

I wouldn't mind "a whole week's worth of good swell with favourable winds" in my forecast notes. I'd be happy not grizzly.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 9:34am

One set at 13th just now. Cooking! (though you don't wanna be under the third wave...)


rishwil's picture
rishwil's picture
rishwil commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 10:06am

Here’s something to think about, stop geotagging surf breaks ffs!
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/travel/instag...
Everyone surfer has a responsibility to keep crowds to a minimum

Line_up

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 11:47am

Yeah people have to stop doing this. Poor form I say.

rishwil's picture
rishwil's picture
rishwil commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 12:43pm

Also, I know we live in a digital world and all the info is available but loose lips sink ships.
Sharing ALL your knowledge with casuals and blow-ins isn’t necessarily the honourable thing to do by the crew.
Gotta leave a little bit of guesswork in it.
So what if you lose a few subscribers, your not in it for the money are you.

Line_up

ShaneK's picture
ShaneK's picture
ShaneK commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 11:44am

Funny swell this morning. The big sets were inconsistent and it almost felt like the swell was over-powered for the reef I was at. The bigger ones were breaking very quickly and also tending to close out across sections. I am assuming this is a product of the long wave period with a lot of energy in the upper range and SW angle. Perhaps deeper reefs handled this swell better. My impression is a lot of the SC reefs are best in the 14-16 sec range.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 12:10pm

Yeah interesting, photos have come in of a pumping, uncrowded Surf Coast, and even images proving that Vicco doesn barrel :o

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 12:58pm

No one has ever complained about getting 40-50% more Gary as a result of a favourable forecast

You and me, Gary, ain’t nothing but mammals so let’s do it* like they do it on the aerobics channel

*faceys

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 at 1:03pm

This is true. Maybe Gary could get a private swell alert email and then keep the rest of it behind the paywall. More Gary G, less kooks. win win

"angry online, smiley in the brine"