Excellent outlook for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th May)
Best Days: Every day on the Surf Coast though only for experienced surfers Sunday through Tuesday
Recap
The beaches faired a bit better than expected yesterday morning with clean conditions and an easing W/SW swell from Wednesday's blow, to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
Today all hell has broken loose with a deepening low moving across the state bringing strong to gale-force onshore winds, stormy surf and tons of rain. We should see a stronger SW groundswell building this afternoon to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds remain strong to gale-force.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This weekend and next week (May 11 – 17)
This afternoon's increase in SW groundswell is due to ease back through tomorrow, with 3ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ sets to the east and winds will swing around to the W/NW-NW, cleaning up protected spots west of Melbourne. It might take a little while to improve though after today's poor conditions with leftover lump likely on the Surf Coast.
Winds are due to swing W/SW around midday, with a possible return to the W/NW late in the day, but with less size.
Looking towards our larger groundswell events into Sunday and Monday, and we've got one prolonged SW groundswell event now on the cards instead of two seperate SW groundswell pulses.
Currently a very intense and broad polar storm is generating an elongated fetch of severe-gales, with stronger embedded storm-force winds in our south-western swell window.
It'll continue east towards Tasmania while slowly weakening this evening as a secondary front fires up on its tail, producing an additional fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds on top the active sea state.
A large and prolonged long-period SW groundswell event is due, with it arriving Sunday morning and building to a strong 6ft into the afternoon across the Surf Coast with 8ft sets at swell magnets, 8-10ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Monday morning should offer similar sized surf with the prolonged nature of the swell, easing off into the afternoon.
Winds are still looking great for the Surf Coast with a persistent and moderate W/NW breeze all day Sunday, freshening from the N/NW on Monday with an approaching front.
This front will be attached to an intense low moving in quickly from the west on Sunday, deepening further just as it passes under Tasmania.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds should produce a moderate to large reinforcing W/SW groundswell for Tuesday, maintaining 4-5ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft sets to the east.
Winds will remain great for the Surf Coast with the passing of the low under Tassie, leaving W/NW-NW offshores Tuesday morning, likely swinging SW early-mid afternoon. Wednesday will be clean again with a W/NW-NW offshore though with smaller easing surf from 3-5ft and 6ft+ respectively on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula.
The swell will continue to ease Thursday under favourable N/NW winds, while a good new long-period SW groundswell is due Friday, produced by a very intense though more distant polar low firing up east of Heard Island early in the week.
At this stage we're looking at building surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to maybe 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula Friday with an early W/NW breeze ahead of a S/SE change as a deepening trough slides up from the south. This trough may form into an intense low bringing poor surf next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Hi Craig, do you think it will be really lumpy tomorrow down the surfcoast or will it be west enough overnight to groom it a bit?
I think it will be peaky/lumpy clean. Like a few random sections running down the wave faces. Not perfect but fun and improving and best just before winds go back onshore.
thanks mate
Gunna be Wallyworld down here on Sunday after nearly 2 weeks of shit conditions.
Surely we're due for an extended run over the next month or so to spread it out a bit......PLEASE Huey!!!
True ringmaster. Generally over 6 ft with 8 ft bombs will keep a few Wally’s out though.
The sunday morning sesh with all the semi competent blokes will be a circus, would rather surf with a touch of west in the wind from midday onwards with more size and less inland blokes to dodge on each wave
i would sometimes rather 5-6ft swell 10knt sw wind the perfect crowd killer.
The ocean lures all !
Hi Craig, why are the models only picking up 3-5ft for Sunday, is the additional few feet you report due to already active sea state and 2 swells in the water?
How good is a Mother's Day swell.
Yeah great except when you’ve got Mother’s Day lunch up Doncaster way at 12pm
Whats the Lorne cam vision
sidewinders ?
Probably reflection of the surf club glass?
Exactamundo.
Craig, today it was truely excellent. Mid to large and powerful waves from mid morning onwards here today, but where were all the mums.......? I would have happily let them rule the roost out there today. I assume, that all the mums were probably spending time with their loved ones and family, woman are such a selfless bunch, beautiful, powerful, and loving, We all could learn a thing or two from the opposite sex, they are foundation of our humanity.
Happy Mother's Day to all.
How good! How big did it get this arvo?
Yep. Great weekend of waves. Yesterday was better than expected after the howling southerlies Friday.
WAG did you see how big it got this arvo?
Yeh, seamed to stabilise in the 4-6ft range, one or two larger waves but mostly around 4-6ft, it was still a powerful long period swell which was really nice. The crowd settled down on the mid to higher tide due to Mother's Day.
Solid there!
Nice pics WAG. Looks pretty quiet at Bells.
Very slow on the outgoing tide this morning but still a solid 5-6ft when the bombs eventually come. You'll also have plenty of friends in the water even though it's a Monday.
Pretty underwhelmed this morning. Not as big as reported from what I was seeing (on the east coast at least) and very slow.
Anyone know what happened with all the helicopters yesterday arvo?
Ha ha.....fucken oath I do!
Basically the old chestnut of kooks out of their depth when there's a combo of solid swell and high tide on the reefs around here.
They can get in.........but they can't get out!!!
Walk around G. I love you brother but putting up photos of good waves is very uncool. Why don't you just send out a frricken hand written invite and express post it to every surfer in Melbourne?
Fair call, point taken.
No more shots, sorry for my over-froth.
lol, I love calling out punters for posting pics but it is the most well-known spot in Australia, on a hyped-up swell, posted 3 hrs after the sun went down
I sent a photo of the surf today to a mate. The fucker is based 1400km from the ocean in the middle of Canada. And that's how it should be done.
Anyone who pulls up in the carpark and starts calling people to tell them is pumping, or posting photos on Facebook is a tip rat.
If people aren't on it, bad luck to them.
These were posted after the fact, in the evening. Fair enough to WAG.
Nah....not when you live here and have to deal with a few more 3 packs who drove down the next day partly inspired by that.
You'd be a dead set kook/clueless beginner to be living in Victoria and to have NOT known it would have been pumping Sunday, and still fun Monday (by checking any of the large quantity of surf forecast websites). If you were that level of kookyness, you certainly wouldn't be making it past the button anyway.
Looking at surf is awesome. Sure keep secrets to yourself, and maybe if you dodge the crowd in a late arvo glass off don't brag about it online - but Sunday morning at one of Australia's most popular breaks....you're kidding yourself!
Yeah, I'm having a hard time imagining any punter who could paddle out at Bells or Winki in the past few days who would not have already known it was on. Definitely a place for not showing photos, but don't think this is one of them.
I’m with vic local on this one.
It’s the first thing I thought of. Oh why the pics. Combined with the forecast notes heading. I’ve always thought just dish out the expected conditions, (ie swell and wind) and let the punters work out the rest.
I’m with vic local on this one.
It’s the first thing I thought of. Oh why the pics. Combined with the forecast notes heading. I’ve always thought just dish out the expected conditions, (ie swell and wind) and let the punters work out the rest.
greyhound.....spot on, mate. +1 for Viclocal too.
The spoon-feed has a lot to answer for, it only takes a few extras to change the whole dynamic even in a crowded lineup, and if they were encouraged by anything they didn't need to be encouraged by then its an impact on the rest of us.