Winteresque swells and fronts return

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 31st October)

Best Days: Both coasts Thursday, Surf Coast Saturday morning, experienced surfers Surf Coast Sunday, both regions Monday, Surf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Recap

Good clean waves across the Surf Coast mostly to 3ft, with the odd 4ft'er at swell magnets. Locations to the east were OK as well with light morning breezes ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

A temporary drop in swell has been seen this morning with good clean conditions on the Surf Coast again, less to to the east with a bit more wobble, bump and crumble.

We should see a new long-period groundswell arriving through the late morning/midday (the swell has hit Cape Sorell at 8:30) as winds remain variable, with the swell peaking into the afternoon, reaching 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with SE sea breezes.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and next week (Nov 1 – Nov 9)

This afternoon's increase in SW groundswell will ease back slowly through the rest of the week but conditions will be great for the beaches tomorrow and clean most of the day.

Winds are due to swing offshore out of the N/NE, moderate to fresh at times and holding into the afternoon, if not tending more N'ly on the Surf Coast.

Swell magnets are due to ease back from 3ft+ across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the beaches to the east, smaller through the day, while Friday will be smaller and back to mostly 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

Winds on Friday will only favour the Surf Coast with a morning NW breeze, tending more W'ly and increasing into the afternoon.

This strengthening W'ly will be linked to a vigorous cold front approaching from the south-west, and with it we'll see a large SW groundswell developing over the weekend, the first in a series of large strong swells owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough developing in the Bight and pushing slowly east over us.

This first swell will be generated by a vigorous polar front projecting up towards WA, generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our western swell window today and tomorrow, but as the front pushes further east and towards us, we'll see it strengthen and broaden.

A broad fetch of W/SW gales will be generated in our swell window, directly south-west of us on Friday afternoon and evening, with core storm-force SW winds projected on top of this active sea state up through our southern swell window Friday evening and Saturday.

What we'll see is a moderate to large W/SW groundswell building through Saturday (more so the afternoon) ahead of a large powerful long-period S/SW groundswell for Sunday.

The Surf Coast should build from 3-4ft or so in the morning, up to 4-5ft+ into the late afternoon and evening, with 6-8ft sets developing on the Mornington Peninsula along with a fresh to strong W/SW breeze (W/NW early around Torquay).

Sunday is looking large and clean on the Surf Coast with surf in the 6-8ft range (check back Friday for confirmation) along with a morning NW offshore, and 10ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula. Afternoon sea breezes aren't due to be too strong.

The swell will continue to ease into Monday under a N'ly breeze ahead of another strong approaching cold front.

This cold front will start as a polar system, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds generated south-west of WA over the weekend, generating a moderate to large long-period SW groundswell for Tuesday morning.

As this swell fills in though, we'll see the remnants of the storm pushing in across us, bringing mid-period swell energy with it, and a following storm under the influence of the Long Wave Trough looks to bring a larger swell mid-week.

We'll have a closer look at the specifics on Friday but we've got a large active period of swell ahead.

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 10:34am

You little Anzac.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 11:11am

Goodbye banks

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 3:00pm

from what I've just seen they are basically gone already

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 11:33am

It’ll swing NNW tomorrow arvo on the Peninsula. Mark my words

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 12:44pm

I'm gonna say variable mid-late afternoon and NW late.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 6:06pm

Whats on the line here Craigo. A sixer of choice to the victor?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 3:21pm

Yep.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 2 Nov 2018 at 6:23am

6'er of Kosi thanks Nick :p

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 12:42pm

Melbourne Cup long weekend, combined with solid groundswell and offshore winds, gee I hope everyone has fun but still surfs within their ability, looks like we're primed to pump again, yew!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 2:22pm

'Return to winter' Craig you just made my day

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Wednesday, 31 Oct 2018 at 9:51pm

Gary is getting pretty stiff while reading this forecast.

Gary’s been on tour, you see, and whilst he’s now a little west of Victoria he’s made the most of the conditions on offer in the outer reaches of the state and he’s subsequently waking up a bit stiffer than usual in the morning.

His muscles are a bit sore from all the paddling, too.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 5:11pm

Great waves to finish off the day..

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 5:16pm

Yep it was a nice one today.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 5:58pm

Day before the Phillip Island QS and Woolamai is off the hook! Shame it won't be like this for the rest of the event...


goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 2 Nov 2018 at 7:12am

The old “freak perfect set” that happens on the beachies.
Pops up whilst you’re getting changed and by the time you paddle out there you’re taking off on closeouts.
Bloody unreal

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 2 Nov 2018 at 8:33am

lots of hype around the surf coast on another sites weekend forecast. For the crew down that way, do you reckon it makes a difference crowd wise? I'd assume that size would thin out the crowds/regulate the lineup somewhat anyway? (of course the smaller more accessible spots would be clogged though)

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 2 Nov 2018 at 8:59am

Yes hype does have a big effect on crowds but being a long weekend it will be crowded regardless. Size only regulates when it's 6ft+ and it ain't going to be that big.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 2 Nov 2018 at 9:41am

Interesting I would have thought it'd hit 6ft, although I'm somewhat dubious of the 6-8 (even 10?) on the main reefs from the aforementioned weekend forecast. Will be interesting to see what Craig calls in the updated forecast. Either way that size is outta my league...