Large SW groundswell with onshore winds, improving into the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd October)

Best Days: Both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings, beaches Monday morning

Recap

Early light winds and good waves on the Surf Coast reefs yesterday, great on the beaches with sets hanging in at a strong 4ft, with large clean waves on the beaches to the east, remaining clean all day as the swell eased a touch.

This morning winds were out of the west, favouring protected spots on the Surf Coast along with a new SW groundswell maintaining 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the magnets.

An onshore change has since moved up the coast and this will spoil conditions for the rest of the week across exposed breaks.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Oct 4 - 7)

Our large and powerful long-period SW groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, but so are the poor onshore winds.

Satellite observations have confirmed a very impressive pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds and post-frontal storm-force W/SW winds in our south-western swell window yesterday and today.

The groundswell is due to arrive overnight, peaking through the day tomorrow to 6-8ft on the sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, 10ft+ to the east but winds will be fresh from the S tending SE in the wake of a surface trough pushing through today.

This trough is still forecast to develop into a low off the southern NSW coast and stall through this weekend before weakening early next week.

This will affect our local winds, with onshore SE winds due to persist through Friday as the large SW groundswell eases from 4-6ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 6-8ft to the east. This easing trend will be slowed by a strong trailing polar front on the back of the low that's generated tomorrow's swell.

Our window of more variable winds for Saturday morning is looking good as a localised surface trough moves in across both regions. Local light offshore breezes are due before swinging onshore but without much strength into the afternoon along with a further drop in size from 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday morning is looking smaller again as the swell continues to fade and a deepening and eastward tracking surface trough across South Australia looks to swing winds locally offshore again.

A small new S/SW groundswell should be seen into the afternoon, generated by a relatively weak polar front sliding in under the country, producing a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/NW winds.

The Surf Coast looks to hang in at 3ft on the sets across swell magnets with 3-5ft waves to the east, easing into Monday under NE tending E winds.

Longer term a small new S/SW groundswell may be seen Tuesday but the surface trough over South Australia is likely to drift across us as a strong high moves in, bringing SE winds, improving mid-late week, but with no decent sized swells. More on this Friday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 3 Oct 2018 at 11:45am

You know how too talk dirty to me Craigo

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 3 Oct 2018 at 11:51am

Yep this is your time Nick!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 5:49am

Very impressive readings off Cape Sorell.. 6-10m @ 18s.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 6:55am

Yikes! Incoming

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 7:45am

Hmmmm, not many options though for the next 2 days and the charts are suggesting that the switch has been activated, back into the summer Easterly quarter winds regime very early this year?

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 10:14am

Why do swellnets forecasts display such a differnt swell angle to point Nepean buoy?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 10:21am

There are a number of factors affecting the swell direction registered near shore, including tidal currents, local bathymetry steering etc. And our virtual buoy point isn't at exactly the same spot.

You'll probably find this article interesting.. Buoys Follow One Direction

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 5:03pm

Just had a quick look at the beach after work. Some macking sets.
All the sponno lords will be busy posting insta photos of the jewel of vicco tonight

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 8:03pm

Really GF? Don't wanna say too much but the winds sure whould have been an issue, no?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Oct 2018 at 8:25pm

Yeah it was definitely going the right way late today

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 5:59am

Fuck the West Coast has it good. Great winter then come over and entertain at the circus with their snake charming skills and ego showcasing.

Stickered up boards getting dropped back out to the peak making me wonder how they even got stickers if they cant paddle?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 6:44am

Getting dropped back to the peak is poor form, that calls for a drop in or burn if they get another set wave.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 8:34am

Hey Nick. Were you actually out at ....... surfing yourself or was that just something you heard on the grapevine at the pub last night?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 8:55am

I saw it on insta, the same kooks always post pics of it unfortunately

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 10:17am

For the arvo session. Yeah

Text can be read out of context but has my comment bothered you ringo?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 12:13pm

Not at all mate! I don't even go there anymore due to the circus it's become when it's on. Last surfed it when it was just tinny's moored there and everyone 's paddling (many years ago). I know a few of the young guns over here of which some were probably surfing out there yesterday. All pretty switched on and respectful and surf really fucking well in all conditions. No doubt they would plough past crew lolly gagging down the line but would be surprised if they were hassling blokes already in pole position or thereabouts when they got back out there.

Old Gregg's picture
Old Gregg's picture
Old Gregg Friday, 5 Oct 2018 at 5:06pm

30 blokes is not really a circus in this day and age and during school holidays. Plenty of waves for everyone in those conditions. You sound miserable Nicholas