Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 6th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday morning, Sunday morning all locations, early Monday east of Melbourne

Recap

Average conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday with an onshore wind and weak swell , while lighter winds to the east created OK options.

This morning is much cleaner with light local offshore winds and heavy fog on the Surf Coast, with small leftover 2ft sets. The Mornington Peninsula is better with easing sets from 3ft.

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This week and weekend (Jun 7 - 10)

Tomorrow and Friday look like lay days with no swell left tomorrow, flat on the Surf Coast and fading 1ft to maybe 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a gusty N'ly wind, while a flukey and acute small W'ly swell for Friday will be met with gusty NW winds.

This will create great conditions on the Surf Coast, but with no size, while the exposed beaches picking up any size will be choppy.

We then look ahead to the weekend, which is still looking great for the Surf Coast Saturday and more exposed beaches to the east Sunday.

Currently a severe but poorly constructed low is sitting south of WA and we'll see this system collect itself and start pushing east while consolidating over the coming days.

A great fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds will be projected slowly towards us through our western swell window, dipping east-southeast and under Tassie on Friday.

A moderate sized W/SW groundswell should be created, filling in overnight Friday and peaking Saturday morning to the 4ft range on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day.

A morning W/NW breeze should create clean conditions across the Surf Coast, swinging SW through the day, while come Sunday we should see more variable winds, tending NE through the morning, favouring the beaches.

Size wise, we're looking at easing 2-3ft sets max at swell magnets on the Surf Coast early and 4ft+ waves to the east.

Monday will be great on the beaches again with a fresh N/NE breeze but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast with only small 2ft to maybe 3ft sets at dawn on the Mornington Peninsula.

Unfortunately there's nothing of significance into the middle of next week as the storm track remains too north for us, with storms pushing up into WA and then turning into mid-latitude lows once pushing further east.

There's some stronger stormy activity on the cards in our far swell windows later next week, but more on this Friday.