Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th November)

Best Days: Swell magnets east of Melbourne Saturday morning, Thursday and Friday east of Melbourne

Recap

Workable waves on both coasts yesterday with a light onshore wind around Torquay and 2ft surf, while the Mornington Peninsula saw cleaner 3-4ft sets. The afternoon was not as favourable with fresher onshore winds.

Today small surf has continued across both coasts to 2ft and 3-4ft respectively with a more variable breeze creating good waves on the beaches in both regions.

This weekend and next week (Nov 12 - 18)

Saturday morning at swell magnets across the state is the best chance for a surf over the coming weekend.

A deepening mid-latitude low will direct NE winds across the state tomorrow morning, swinging NW through the day and freshening.

Swell wise, the Surf Coast is expected to be small to tiny with a mix of easing SE windswell and background SW energy possibly to 1-2ft at magnets.

The Mornington Peninsula should see clean 2-3ft sets through the morning before the NW'ly ruffles up conditions into the afternoon.

Now, the positioning of the low developing to our west is key for swell generation, as discussed last update, and unfortunately the low is expected to sit too far north through its entire life-time.

This will result in tiny surf through Sunday under NW offshore winds ahead of an afternoon SW change as the low starts moving east.

Unfortunately with the low weaker and sitting more north, only strong SW winds will be aimed into us overnight Sunday and Monday, producing a weak poor SW windswell for Monday.

The Surf Coast will be a junky 3ft or so, with 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula but along with fresh to strong SW winds.

Tuesday may see an early W/NW wind on the Surf Coast but the windswell will be easing with fading 2ft sets.

Into the afternoon a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due, generated by a fetch of W/NW gales south-west of WA today and early tomorrow.

No major size is due from this fetch, with inconsistent 2-3ft waves possibly at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore winds.

Another similar size pulse is possible for Wednesday from a weaker but closer fetch of strong pre-frontal W/NW winds. Conditions will remain less than favourable though with a SW'ly breeze, likely W'ly early on the Surf Coast.

Thursday looks to be the best day to surf next week with easing surf and clean conditions east of Melbourne under a NE breeze. Friday looks to be cleaner again but small. More on this Monday! Have a great weekend!