Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th September)

Best Days: Sunday Surf Coast and dawn Monday, east of Melbourne Wednesday, both coasts Thursday and Friday

Recap

As expected a rapid drop in size was seen across the state yesterday with fading 2ft sets at magnets on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula at dawn, small into the afternoon.

Today signs of some new inconsistent W/SW swell were showing across magnets, but hardly reaching 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions are due to remain favourable for most of the day with an onshore change delayed until later this afternoon. Some new long-range W/SW groundswell should also fill in, so keep an eye on the 13th Beach and Portsea cams for a window of fun waves this afternoon.

This weekend (Sep 10 - 11)

Tomorrow isn't looking too flash now with the delayed change this afternoon resulting in less than favourable W/SW winds lingering across all coasts into tomorrow morning. There's a very slim chance for W/NW breezes around Torquay, but with building surf it's probably not worth travelling too far for.

A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell should be seen through the morning to 2-3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a late kick in stronger swell upwards of 3ft and 5-6ft respectively.

This swell has been generated by a fetch of pre-frontal severe-gale W/NW winds ahead of a strong polar fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds, and should offer 3ft+ sets Sunday morning on the Surf Coast and 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The best swell from the polar low is due to arrive mid-late morning and kick to a strong 4ft across most breaks into the afternoon on the Surf Coast with 5ft sets likely at magnets, and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be great most of the day with a NW tending light W/NW breeze, favouring the Surf Coast over the Mornington Peninsula.

Next week onwards (Sep 12 onwards)

A temporary drop in swell is due into Monday morning but if you're keen to surf you better go the early as an onshore S'ly change is due mid-morning.

Our reinforcing SW groundswell for later in the day has been shifted a touch back to Tuesday, generated by a secondary vigorous polar low firing up along the polar shelf over the weekend.

We're expected to see good 3-4ft+ sets across the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula Tuesday but winds will remain poor and fresh from the S'th as a deepening low forms off the Gippsland Coast.

Another low forming in the Bight and drifting south-east towards us Wednesday should veer winds more E/NE as the SW swell eases.

Longer term there's more moderate sized SW groundswell due into Thursday and Friday with favourable winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!