Fun weekend with light winds, continuing into early next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th January)
Best Days: Both coasts Saturday, Sunday, Monday mornings, east of Melbourne Tuesday morning
Recap
Clean but tiny waves across the Surf Coast yesterday morning, with OK 1-2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Today the surf was even smaller with unsurfable waves across both regions.
This weekend and next week (Jan 30 – Feb 5)
Our new SW groundswell due tomorrow is still on track, with inconsistent 2-3ft sets due across swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
The secondary pulse for Sunday morning is also still tracking along as expected, with 2ft sets due to persist all day on the Surf Coast, along with sets in the 4ft range across the Mornington Peninsula, easing back slowly into Monday from 1-2ft and 3-4ft respectively.
Conditions over the coming few days are looking good each morning with variable winds and generally clean conditions ahead of afternoon sea breezes.
The Mornington Peninsula will be the only real option on Tuesday as the swell eases back more from the 2-3ft range with offshore N/NE winds. The Surf Coast is expected to be tiny.
Into the middle to end of the week, a strong mid-latitude low forming in the Bight is expected to generate a good moderate sized pulse of W/SW groundswell for later Wednesday but more so Thursday with a secondary mid-period pulse for Friday.
The low will stall a little too far north and west to generate any major size for the Surf Coast with inconsistent 2-3ft sets due across most spots, coming in at 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The secondary reinforcing swell should keep similar sized sets hitting both coasts Friday before easing into the weekend.
Before the swell kicks Wednesday, poor SW winds are due (W/NW early on the Surf Coast) with average S/SW winds likely into Thursday and Friday. Well have a closer look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Sorrel is already coming up. Reckon the swell might start filling in late evening?
Ah, that's background long period energy, there's no real size to it. With an approx 4 hour travel time, maybe 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast late.
Are the winds still Looking good for Tomoz Craig some websites have it been southerly do you still reckon it will be offshore Tomoz
Dear Craigo,
Not sure but I don't think there will be any sneaky barrels tomorow as I have looked at ten weather websites all saying it is going to be onshore winds very early in the mourning. I am a bit bamboozled why swellnet is saying it will be offshore. Is it worth the hike down to the surf Coast from melb.
Cheers mate you Absalute legend
Craig said winds would be variable, not offshore. Variable means 'from any direction'.
Personally I reckon it will be good tomorrow light variable winds should be clean and fun I am pumped finally some fun waves without being onshore and 2-3ft of size
Was watching weak Se 1ft windswell on dark on surfcoast. Not going to be worth it in the morning
Looking very tidy across the Bellarine Peninsula this morning, easy 2-3ft sets and light winds.
Things looked a bit bumpy and small on the surf coast when I rolled out of bed this morning, so I headed to a secluded (kind of) and nice and exposed beachie not too far from the big smoke. Glassy 4-6ft and uncrowded (by mid morning I was sharing the beach with 3 others), rode my step up and got heaps of waves with plenty of punch. There were plenty of hollow peaks on offer but I managed to dodge the barrel each time...! (yes, Vicco does barrel).
Forecast was spot on - light and variable, but the beach I went to the variable wind was blowing mostly from the land - epic session!
Great to hear! And yes the Torquay report (below) sums up why I forecast light and variable, as that was exactly what was seen across most coasts this morning. Spewing the onshore kicked in at 8am on the MP though.
"Some swell lines 2-3ft have moved in overnight. The reefs have some ok waves as the swell drops. The light winds are all over the place...a bit of NW, W early then S then ESE etc. Low tide around 11am so plenty of options around the reefs and beaches thru the day."
Bugger - was silky smooth at seven minutes to eight!
Yep haha. Classic MP. Always going wrong. Made up for it sunday. Where did that east swell get churned up from?
From this sneaky fetch of SE gales in Bass Strait.. (red barbs).
Still some good sized sets in TQ earlier.
And looking very nice on the Bellarine Peninsula too.
Yeah the S.E nature of the swell really lit-up some spots you normally wouldn't look for waves. Got real good waves on a left hand point break somewhere between aireys inlet and port Phillip heads. Not 1 surfer to be seen! Had 3 surfs at 3 different spots and it seemed like spots that are usually bigger than others, were smaller and vise versa. like some spots around tq had more size than 13th. the left hander defiantly had the best quality and size(still trying to brush the part out of my hair after getting liped from one i was a bit slow getting into). But you got to rethink whats exposed when the swell direction is different to the norm. I wonder how it was on the other side (mp and pi) in comparison.
Craig, do you ever give a forecast on shipwreck coast side of things, or just Melbourne and surrounds?
Yeah, just Melbourne and surrounds, similar to how we don't do the South East, or Yorkes as well. Although there's automated forecasts for all these regions.
Where are u Sheepio ?
None of your bee's wax southey ;P Doing a fair bit of commuting S.A to vic atm....
Craig... Is it a time factor issue? or is it "political"?
Time factor. Simply not enough people reading the extended notes (from such a small region) to bother with. It's hard enough to justify two seperate Forecaster Notes for Tasmania as it is.
?? Talking about vicco, Ben.... Yeah I understand your point re' tassie, but the stretch from Cape Ottway to Portland (including Johanna) has a fair crew, with that stretch of coast being the option for many Melbourne/Geelong/Torquay surfers utilizing the region when the surf coast is small..
Those surfers who are travelling from afar to surf that region can probably deduce what's happening from the existing Vicco notes, and the other forecasting tools we provide for that area.
This is our same approach for the Yorkes and West Coast SA regions too, and several other regions.
SD ,
Melbourne surfers don't travel that way when its small they go to the nearby swell magnets of Gunna and Woolamai .
Southey, what about west melbourne?? Altona, Werribee, Sunshine, Hoppers Crossing?? A solid million people there.... Rye might be bit closer as the crow flies, but fuck the Westgate - Kings way - S.E car park, mate.... And Nepean or beach road is a drag.... Frankston to melbourne city is 90 minutes on a good run..... So i wouldn't call Gunna or meanos nearby if I was working/living in Werribee..... Be just as easy rippin down to Johanna via Colac wouldn't it?..... Suppose they'd just go to Barwon, aye?...... Anyhoooooo, it's a Melbourne and surrounds forecast.... But that's cool.... I'll figure it out, angles, tides, winds... It's all good... Cheers.....
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Excellent use of the tar brush on a million souls there, southwald.... I'm impressed :)
Got some nice funhanders on the early today actually... Bit of a fat reef.... Little slow.... But so am I.... hehehe
I didn't think you had a 4wd . ? Is it a subaroo bimbi , I hear they are hard to park .
No... I own a Leyland P76, urine yellow with tan interior... And the Kingston S.E to Mount Gambier run only costs me $80 in fuel one way... Bargain I reckon....
Still pumping in Vicco this morning, 13th Beach is looking unreal.
Wow a bit more size than I was expecting to be leftover this morning, looks fun as!
A little full on the Mornington Peninsula, but nice lines...
5m white seen at the heads last week, along with a seal bitten in half, and at Rye yesterday arvo. Lots of dolphins and schools of salmon around too. Feet up folks!
13th was great yesterday, much bigger and better than expected.