Fun Friday and Saturday on the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd April)
Best Days: Early Friday east of Melbourne, most of the day on the Surf Coast, Saturday on the Surf Coast
Moderate amounts of swell but poor and fresh S/SE winds yesterday, holding a similar size this morning but with a persistent onshore SE breeze.
This week (Apr 23 - 24)
Tomorrow will remain average with a slow start through the morning ahead of a new strong SW groundswell into the afternoon. This swell has been generated the last few days by a strong but unfavourably tracking polar frontal system developing south-west of WA.
The swell should build to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow afternoon but with fresh onshore SE winds.
Friday is the day to surf with the swell easing from 3ft to possibly 4ft across the Surf Coast early and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under offshore N/NW tending W/NW winds. The Mornington Peninsula should see a straighter N'ly at dawn before swinging more W'ly.
This weekend onwards (Apr 25 onwards)
Our kick in short-range W/SW swell expected off an intense mid-latitude low developing to our west has now been wiped with the low forecast to now push up and into South Australia, with no fetch being generated in our swell window at all.
Instead some more distant SW groundswell should keep inconsistent 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under W/NW winds ahead of a late SW change.
Come Sunday conditions will be poor with an average mix of swells and strong but easing S/SW winds.
Into next week there's plenty of SW groundswell due into the start of next week but winds will remain onshore and fresh Monday from the S/SW and from the S/SW tending S'ly Tuesday.
It won't be until Thursday that winds are due to swing offshore but with smaller and easing levels of swell. More on this Friday though.