Craig

Fun Friday and Saturday on the Surf Coast

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd April)

Best Days: Early Friday east of Melbourne, most of the day on the Surf Coast, Saturday on the Surf Coast

Recap

Moderate amounts of swell but poor and fresh S/SE winds yesterday, holding a similar size this morning but with a persistent onshore SE breeze.

This week (Apr 23 - 24)

Tomorrow will remain average with a slow start through the morning ahead of a new strong SW groundswell into the afternoon. This swell has been generated the last few days by a strong but unfavourably tracking polar frontal system developing south-west of WA.

The swell should build to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow afternoon but with fresh onshore SE winds.

Friday is the day to surf with the swell easing from 3ft to possibly 4ft across the Surf Coast early and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under offshore N/NW tending W/NW winds. The Mornington Peninsula should see a straighter N'ly at dawn before swinging more W'ly.

This weekend onwards (Apr 25 onwards)

Our kick in short-range W/SW swell expected off an intense mid-latitude low developing to our west has now been wiped with the low forecast to now push up and into South Australia, with no fetch being generated in our swell window at all.

Instead some more distant SW groundswell should keep inconsistent 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under W/NW winds ahead of a late SW change.

Come Sunday conditions will be poor with an average mix of swells and strong but easing S/SW winds.

Into next week there's plenty of SW groundswell due into the start of next week but winds will remain onshore and fresh Monday from the S/SW and from the S/SW tending S'ly Tuesday.

It won't be until Thursday that winds are due to swing offshore but with smaller and easing levels of swell. More on this Friday though.

Comments

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:36pm

Hi Craig what time do you think the winds will go Onshore on the surf coast on Saturday? Cheers

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:38pm

Still a little tricky regarding when the low will push east across us but probably around 1pm.

I'll have a much better idea Friday.

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin commented Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 7:56pm

What time do you think the set will come at Winkis on Saturday morning?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 7:06am

Haha.

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 8:33am

My surf couch said the third set is always the best set for Winkis.

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 10:54am

Gary_G_Gherkin you are a spud mate, stick to lawn bowls.

Lukasr2's picture
Lukasr2's picture
Lukasr2 commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 10:58am

Hi Craig, do u think current forcast for wind and swell is still good for Friday on vic surfcoast? Thanks mate

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 11:10am

Yes, there's been no change.

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 5:27pm

Hi Craig, do you think Saturday will be worth a surf on the vic surf coast? And do you think that winds will be offshore for some time of the day?

Will86's picture
Will86's picture
Will86 commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 5:35pm

Hey Craig,

The winds seem to be swinging around a bit from NW - SW on Saturday Morning. What's the chance of these sticking somewhere in the West - North West direction for the early morning on the Surf Coast?

Cheers

Will86

nathanhs's picture
nathanhs's picture
nathanhs commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 7:45pm

Hi Craig,

Thankyou for this post.

Im wondering how Mornington will look on Saturday morning.

What spots do you reckon will be best for someone looking for a 3-4ft wave?

Thanks,

Nathan

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:10am

Nathan, the MP will be terrible tomorrow, cross-shore wind and solid 4-6ft swell. Try Flinders for a smaller 3-4ft wave during the morning.

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog commented Thursday, 23 Apr 2015 at 9:11pm

Guys, FFS. Just go surfing.
Craig has already given you a pretty detailed report, and he does it three times a week.
I hope you are members of swellnet pro to expect a personal hand-holding surf trip every weekend.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 1:51pm

Hallelujah mackdog! What's with all the questions!?
Get in the car and go for a freaken surf! YOU CAN STILL SURF IF ITS ONSHORE!!!
Are Melbourne surfers proving themselves to be the biggest kooks in the land?

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 1:40pm

Its a long way to go to surf slop

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 2:09pm

True mate but it seems your being told pretty much when to surf and when not too. Get up early, go for a drive and even if it's shit go out and get a couple. It's the best way to start your day. What will you be doing in the city otherwise at 7:00 am?

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 2:11pm

Hit the You Yangs or Buxton for a MTB ride.
I enjoy both equally, so id rather MTB then ride onshore slop, but if i have a window of clean ill surf.
To many hobbies

danef's picture
danef's picture
danef commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 9:59pm
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 10:51pm

I was going regardless danef, just wanted to get the experts opinion.
Nice detective work though buddy

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 10:12am

Hi Guys, all this and more will be discussed in the next update within a couple of hours.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 12:32am

the current wind obs

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 11:37pm

You can check that while your still asleep & if its good u get outta bed .if not good keep sleeping .

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 7:22am

What in Gods name are You yangs and Buxton ?

Maybe MTB means motorbike ?

Lots of beginners getting around Melbourne by the sounds of it.....not that there's anything wrong with that. Apologies to Jerry Seinfeld.

inzider's picture
inzider's picture
inzider commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 8:37am

The you Yang's are a couple of pimples on the landscape between Melbourne and Geeshlong where you can don your lyrca and ride your MTB (mountainbike)
It is pretty average to say the least.

Who are these gits who ask these seriously kook questions about surf,are they for real?

inzider's picture
inzider's picture
inzider commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 8:41am

Dose anybody know what time the concrete will dry today in melbourne, its been raining and I want to ride my stand up skateboard. And what bowl will have the grindiest coping if the wind is from the south.

MelbRipper's picture
MelbRipper's picture
MelbRipper commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 9:16am

The bunker is a great indoor skatepark for rainy days. Check it out -----> http://www.bunkerskatepark.com.au/. That's where I usually spend the weekend when Craig tells me not to bother driving down for a surf.