Craig

Plenty of swell, with windows of good conditions

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 20th March)

Best Days: Saturday morning for keen surfers at selected spots, Sunday, early Monday morning east of Melbourne (from mid-late morning to the West), Wednesday morning both coasts

Recap

Small clean and easing 1-2ft waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with 2ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under offshore winds that persisted most of the day ahead of an onshore change.

Today the beginners of a new W/SW groundswell was starting to show across both regions, with small clean 2ft waves around Torquay and bumpy 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds have since shifted onshore everywhere and we can expect the swell to kick solidly this afternoon/evening to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and the 8ft range across the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

This afternoon/evening's strong kick in W/SW and SW groundswells were generated by a vigorous frontal system pushing in from the west.

This front is now pushing across Tassie with a weakening fetch of SW winds trailing behind it, resulting in a steady drop in size from tomorrow morning, through the rest of the weekend.

The Surf Coast should still offer 3-5ft sets through the morning and 8ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula, but winds will be average and light to moderate from the S/SE, tending E/SE through the afternoon. There's an outside chance for variable winds at dawn on the Surf Coast, but don't count on it.

Sunday is the day to surf with developing offshore N/NE winds and an easing swell from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Early morning may still be a little unorganised, but conditions should be great from mid-morning.

Monday onwards (Mar 23 onwards)

As touched on Wednesday, some very long-period SW groundswell is due to arrive Sunday afternoon/evening but it will have no size to it, generated in our far swell window around Heard Island.

The secondary developments on the low that generated this long-period swell is of greater interest, with it positioned south-west of WA, generating a fetch of weakening gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window.

This system will push east today and tomorrow while slowly weakening, producing a moderate sized SW groundswell for Monday. The swell should build through the morning, peaking during the middle of the day to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula (smaller early).

You'll have to time your run though as fresh and gusty N/NW winds through the morning are due to swing W/NW late morning ahead of a strong W/SW change mid-afternoon.

So late morning/midday across the Surf Coast will likely be the best time to surf.

This change will produce an additional moderate plus sized SW swell for Tuesday, as it directs a fetch of S/SW gales through our swell window as it pushes towards us Monday.

The models are combining this new swell and the SW groundswell already in the water, over-forecasting the size for Tuesday morning, with the Surf Coast likely to be in the 3-5ft range and Mornington Peninsula 6-8ft.

Winds will be poor with a fresh to strong but easing SW'ly, with an outside chance of early W'ly breezes around Torquay at dawn.

Wednesday should be much better with local offshore winds and a dropping swell from 3ft and 5-6ft respectively.

Into the end of next week we should see moderate amounts of SW groundswell into Thursday but winds are a little tricky with a deepening mid-latitude low possibly stalling just to our west. We'll have a closer look at this on Monday though. Have a great weekend!

Comments

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 5:27pm

Hi when are your thoughts on when the next major swell will be about. Next weekend?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 5:30pm

How big are we talking Willi and where.

Monday midday onwards and into Tuesday morning will be considerable but with average winds.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 6:10pm

I'm talking around 4 ft with a few days of clean winds at jan juc area

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 10:57pm

I'll be impressed if the MP gets reported as >6ft tomorrow, this arvo might've been 5ft max I reckon.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 8:54am

Heard one break in 6-8ft this morning and it doesn't cop the brunt of the swell Mitch. Buoy readings are solid as well.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 2:21pm

Easy 6ft sets today. Couple of bombies breaking well this morning and they don't start until it's 6-8ft

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 2:31pm

Fair enough. Didn't go in the water but Gunamatta def didn't look 6-8ft yesterday at 6pm . More searching to do so can't wait for tomorrow!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 2:36pm

Tomorrow should be good, low tide in the morning so beachies will probably be closing out but could be a couple of sneaky reefs working

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 2:48pm

Cheers goofyfoot, probably head a bit further east

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2015 at 11:18pm

And that might apply to next weekend too, further further East, lookout Morris! :p

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2015 at 11:38am

Are you living in Vic now MitchVG?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .