We’re looking at a complicated synoptic set-up from Wed next week with multiple small low pressure troughs off the NSW Coast and the remnants of a cut-off low which tracks SE into the Tasman as it weakens.
Our great run of surf and conditions has come to an end and it'll be tricky trying to find a decent wave over the coming forecast period.
We've got dropping surf in size and period on the weekend with average but workable conditions tomorrow, cleaner on the beaches Sunday. A tricky start to early-mid next week follows.
A Bass Strait fetch later Mon should provide some small refracted S swell later Tues, likely missing the South Coast-Illawarra stretch and showing from Sydney to the Hunter with some 2-3ft sets in the a’noon.
There's plenty of swell due into the end of the week and early next week but winds will be a problem.
A tricky period with a good swell spoilt by onshore winds tomorrow, improving slowly from Friday but with smaller, weaker S/SW swells.
A more local fetch of NE winds is now developing off the South Coast of NSW and into Bass Strait with a corresponding rise in NE windswell expected for NETas.
We’re in the middle of the blocking pattern which is coming in a little weaker than modelled. High pressure (1025hPa) sits in the Central Tasman directing a fairly insipid SE flow through most of the Central/Northern Tasman and extending into the Coral Sea. A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. As a result surf is coming in at the low end of f/cast expectations, and this soft trend is expected to continue.
A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. As a result surf is coming in at the low end of f/cast expectations, and this soft trend is expected to continue.
The surf will build through tomorrow as winds shift and change, onshore Friday but only light and workable. The weekend is a little mixed.
